SPECTRUM-2
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$3.25
Advertised RTP
178.34%
EV $5.80 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.04%
239 openings, odds method
Variance
92.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 58
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 239 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/spectrum-2/info, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 178.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.25 | 178.34% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.25 | 175.43% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.25 | 175.21% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.25 | 182.22% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.25 | 171.85% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.25 | 173.25% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.25 | 170.10% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.25 | 172.51% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.25 | 179.74% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.25 | 173.79% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.2%covert 0.9%gold 0.3%covert knife 0.4%classified 4.2%industrial 2.1%mil spec 7.8%restricted 10.2%Mythical 4.2%Legendary 1.4%violet 14.2%milspec 29.1%Consumer Grade 3.5%Restricted 4.1%#4b69ff 7.9%Mil Spec Grade 4.1%Rare 2.9%blue 2.6%best hit —