STARLIGHT
A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$6.00
Advertised RTP
102.02%
EV $6.12 from 70 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.81%
441 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 441 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/starlight/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 102.02%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $6.00 | 102.02% | 70 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $6.00 | 101.65% | 70 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $6.00 | 104.68% | 70 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.00 | 104.85% | 70 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $6.00 | 103.52% | 70 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $6.00 | 102.90% | 70 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $6.00 | 102.39% | 70 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $6.00 | 103.27% | 70 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $6.00 | 104.11% | 70 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $6.00 | 106.57% | 70 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%red 0.3%restricted 21.2%classified 21.3%pink 5.1%#d32ee6 4.8%mil spec 19.1%Legendary 4.1%Classified 4.1%Mythical 10.1%Uncommon 4.0%Restricted 4.0%best hit —