SUBZERO
A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$5.98
Advertised RTP
98.38%
EV $5.88 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.77%
935 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 97.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (59.34% – 94.20%, 935 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 935 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/subzero/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 98.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.98 | 98.38% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.98 | 97.47% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.98 | 98.03% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.98 | 98.67% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.98 | 96.91% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.98 | 96.15% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.98 | 98.82% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.98 | 95.17% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.98 | 93.98% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.98 | 98.75% | 59 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%pink 0.6%restricted 2.7%Ancient 0.7%industrial 3.1%mil spec 3.8%classified 7.7%Classified 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 4.5%Restricted 4.3%violet 11.2%Mythical 0.8%blue 8.3%consumer 0.9%#8847ff 4.9%Rare 6.2%Industrial Grade 3.8%milspec 10.5%#777777 4.1%#4b69ff 14.2%Mil Spec 3.6%Consumer Grade 2.3%best hit —