VANGUARD
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$4.99
Advertised RTP
85.32%
EV $4.26 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.13%
53 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 53 openings and 11.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/vanguard/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.99 | 85.32% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.99 | 87.84% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.99 | 90.40% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.99 | 87.90% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.99 | 89.87% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.99 | 86.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.99 | 85.44% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.99 | 87.39% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.99 | 90.61% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.99 | 88.04% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.1%covert knife 0.2%Legendary 0.6%mil spec 1.0%pink 5.9%restricted 7.0%classified 1.4%Mil Spec Grade 23.8%milspec 5.9%Classified 0.4%blue 5.8%Rare 5.1%#8847ff 16.0%violet 5.4%Restricted 10.8%Consumer Grade 10.5%best hit —