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Knives

A case on FarmSkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price.

Price
$149.99
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
93.82%
829 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
31 openings · below min
7 days
717 openings · below min
30 days
829 openings · below min
since tracking started
829 openings · below min
66.0%99.5%133.0%

Small sample. 829 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3199.30%±32.9—sample
7d71795.69%±7.57—sample
30d82993.82%±6.81—sample
All82993.82%±6.81—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogFarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700Mano Z$150$1,60110.67x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700MuhaStadist$150$1,59310.62x
★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertChill bro, i got a day job$150$1,1817.87x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyMuhaStadist$150$9216.14x
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicUSE CODE: KSTV$150$8265.51x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnySamppa$150$8255.50x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyPol0$150$8255.50x
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicjelo$150$8195.46x
★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMuhaStadist$150$8025.35x
★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertmeowster2000$150$8025.35x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeQuattroPinker26$150$1330.89x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedGamba Man$150$19.360.13x
★ Classic Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldJulian Ashford$150$83.100.55x
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeJulian Ashford$150$56.060.37x
★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covertJulian Ashford$150$86.870.58x
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldJulian Ashford$150$41.820.28x
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · ImmortalJulian Ashford$150$1240.83x
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertJulian Ashford$150$1200.80x
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · coverti swear she was adult$150$1691.12x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · CovertGoofball$150$93.390.62x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,601 (10.67x)