Heat

A case on FarmSkins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price.

Price

$777.99

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

90.74%

1,250 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

166 openings · below min

7 days

826 openings · below min

30 days

90.74%±5.461,250 openings

since tracking started

90.74%±5.461,250 openings

80.5%92.8%105.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	166	92.70%±11.5	—	sample
7d	826	89.29%±6.34	—	sample
30d	1,250	90.74%±5.46	—	sample
All	1,250	90.74%±5.46	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogFarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · coverthyza$778$7,7579.97x8d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covertFruitcupx$778$7,7579.97x8d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covertmyll$778$7,6569.84x5d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covertmyll$778$6,9558.94x7d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · coverthyza$778$6,9188.89x3d

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covertFruitcupx$778$5,8197.48x8d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandmelkiy-eto-ya$778$5,6077.21x2d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covertFruitcupx$778$5,4376.99x1d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · coverthyza$778$5,4376.99x1d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covertFruitcupx$778$5,3236.84x2h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldAFKLegend$778$5710.73x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertFruitcupx$778$6910.89x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covertAFKLegend$778$4150.53x1h

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertFruitcupx$778$8951.15x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertAFKLegend$778$6700.86x1h

★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covertFruitcupx$778$5710.73x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertAFKLegend$778$4510.58x1h

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertFruitcupx$778$1,8852.42x1h

★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covertunivers$778$2470.32x2h

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertFruitcupx$778$3720.48x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $7,757 (9.97x)