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The First One

A case on FarmSkins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price.

Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
16.41%
344 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
49 openings · below min
7 days
267 openings · below min
30 days
344 openings · below min
since tracking started
344 openings · below min
10.5%16.3%22.0%

Small sample. 344 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4916.12%±5.18—sample
7d26716.48%±2.61—sample
30d34416.41%±2.19—sample
All34416.41%±2.19—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogFarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecvDudzerFul$2.50$0.150.06x
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedjesin1.$2.50$1.240.50x
MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarebaraly clean$2.50$0.100.04x
Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)weapon · milspecPiratebay777$2.50$0.490.20x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMejsr$2.50$0.260.10x
Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueRafaelDead$2.50$0.140.06x
Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffDinkski$2.50$0.080.03x
Tec-9 | Slag (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffendiendi2026$2.50$0.080.03x
UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalDR_ex$2.50$0.730.29x
Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalFrenchFry$2.50$0.730.29x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —