SLAX

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$60.00

Advertised RTP

88.87%

EV $53.32 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.82%

878 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.04%±35.30140 openings

7 days

82.21%±16.02680 openings

30 days

80.82%±14.09878 openings

since tracking started

80.82%±14.09878 openings

37.0%73.0%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	140	73.04%±35.3	−0.9σ	odds
7d	680	82.21%±16.0	−0.8σ	odds
30d	878	80.82%±14.1	−1.1σ	odds
All	878	80.82%±14.1	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 880 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 225	$1,334	11.1%	1	3.9	0.26×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 70	$417	11.1%	10	12.5	0.80×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 63	$373	11.1%	15	14.0	1.07×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 61	$361	11.1%	14	14.4	0.97×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 42	$251	11.1%	19	20.7	0.92×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 37	$217	11.1%	27	24.0	1.13×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 30	$176	11.1%	32	29.6	1.08×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$62.89	11.1%	79	82.9	0.95×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	12.6%	$47.05	11.1%	111	110.8	1.00×
Sticker \| drop \| Paris 2023sticker · #D2D2D2	64.5%	$0.03	0.0%	572	567.2	1.01×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1009089, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$60.00$1,33422.23x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$60.00$2514.19x5m

Sticker | drop | Paris 2023sticker · #D2D2D2olejarzkrzysztof26$60.00$0.030.00x5m

USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · RestrictedPashaBisekss skins.army$60.00$47.050.78x5m

Sticker | drop | Paris 2023sticker · #D2D2D2$60.00$0.030.00x8m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classifiedku$60.00$62.891.05x8m

★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$60.00$1762.93x1h

Sticker | drop | Paris 2023sticker · #D2D2D2$60.00$0.030.00x1h

Sticker | drop | Paris 2023sticker · #D2D2D2Czarny Eriko$60.00$0.030.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$60.00	88.87%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.2%sunny 6.7%gold 1.6%classified 9.4%Restricted 12.6%#D2D2D2 64.5%best hit $1,334 (22.23x)