Fire Shock
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.50
Advertised RTP
88.97%
EV $9.34 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.11%
4,326 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,344 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/101, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $10.50 | 88.97% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.4%restricted 25.7%classified 12.9%Covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.2%#8847ff 10.2%Mil Spec Grade 1.5%Mythical 11.2%mil spec 13.9%violet 2.2%#4b69ff 19.9%best hit $511 (48.70x)