MarioSPZoo
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$7.70
Advertised RTP
88.87%
EV $6.84 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.48%
5,817 openings, odds method
Variance
7.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,861 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1011868, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.70 | 88.87% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 2.5%classified 10.9%restricted 3.8%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.1%gold 0.4%mil spec 0.5%rare 0.6%#8847ff 0.9%Restricted 1.0%blue 1.0%Classified 3.0%pink 4.9%Uncommon 70.3%best hit $523 (67.97x)