10% Luxury

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$81.00

Advertised RTP

84.39%

EV $68.36 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.32%

868 openings, odds method

Variance

10.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 44

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

101 openings · below min

7 days

88.39%±27.42556 openings

30 days

80.32%±21.92868 openings

since tracking started

80.32%±21.92868 openings

32.5%97.5%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	101	97.58%±64.3	—	odds
7d	556	88.39%±27.4	+0.3σ	odds
30d	868	80.32%±21.9	−0.4σ	odds
All	868	80.32%±21.9	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 868 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$2,808	4.9%	0	1.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,855	27.1%	10	8.7	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$1,330	9.7%	7	4.3	1.61×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 148	$966	9.6%	4	5.9	0.68×
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$936	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 146	$764	7.6%	7	5.9	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$596	6.7%	4	6.7	0.60×
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 102	$581	8.3%	9	8.5	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$515	7.3%	7	8.5	0.83×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 73	$419	8.4%	8	12.0	0.67×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 198	$339	2.5%	2	4.4	0.46×
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 141	$330	3.4%	3	6.2	0.49×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 106	$178	2.5%	7	8.2	0.85×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$135	1.5%	6	6.4	0.94×
SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	90.0%	$0.04	0.1%	794	781.2	1.02×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/108, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedtwitch.tv/kosior_777$81.00$1,85522.91x6h

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$81.00$1,85522.91x6h

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedMateuszyście$81.00$1,85522.91x1d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$81.00$1,85522.91x3d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$81.00$1,85522.91x4d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedNexe$85.70$1,85521.65x7d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$85.70$1,85521.65x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$81.00$0.040.00x22m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkim.$81.00$0.040.00x22m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer⋆Brazzers⋆ |Johnny Sins$81.00$0.040.00x25m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkim.$81.00$0.040.00x25m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerDnaMoczanowa$81.00$0.040.00x27m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkim.$81.00$0.040.00x27m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$81.00$0.040.00x3h

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumermrouZ$81.00$0.040.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
5 Nov, 18:07 UTC	$81.00	84.39%	15
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$85.70	84.41%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 3.0%#d32ee6 3.5%covert 0.8%restricted 2.7%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,855 (22.91x)