Once upon a time
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
89.03%
EV $0.36 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.52%
147K openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 148K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/111, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.03%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $0.40 | 89.03% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.40 | 89.04% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRare 3.0%violet 0.2%superior 0.1%#8847ff 1.5%restricted 5.2%Restricted 0.1%mil spec 4.8%Mythical 0.1%#4b69ff 38.7%Mil Spec 3.8%industrial 10.6%#87c7ff 5.5%consumer 26.3%best hit $50.07 (125.2x)