El Cheapo
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.50
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $1.33 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.27%
57.7K openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.97% – 91.57%, 57,690 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 57.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/113, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.50 | 88.90% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.50 | 88.84% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.9%#eb4b4b 0.0%pink 0.2%restricted 7.9%mil spec 4.5%#d32ee6 0.2%master 0.2%violet 3.0%Mythical 11.5%#8847ff 9.1%#4b69ff 52.8%Rare 2.5%milspec 2.6%industrial 4.5%best hit $185 (123.1x)