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A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.50
Advertised RTP
88.97%
EV $4.00 from 61 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.03%
8,720 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,748 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/114, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.50 | 88.97% | 61 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 2.1%classified 13.7%#eb4b4b 0.0%Legendary 0.1%restricted 7.9%#d32ee6 1.1%#8847ff 4.9%pink 0.9%Classified 0.4%mil spec 37.3%Mythical 0.5%blue 1.4%#4b69ff 19.0%Rare 5.8%milspec 5.0%best hit $252 (55.95x)