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Bite of skin

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$2.20
Advertised RTP
89.04%
EV $1.96 from 77 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.72%
26.6K openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92.50%±5.093,314 openings
7 days
90.19%±1.9522.5K openings
30 days
90.72%±1.7926.6K openings
since tracking started
90.72%±1.7926.6K openings
87.0%92.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3,31492.50%±5.09+1.3σodds
7d22.5K90.19%±1.95+1.2σodds
30d26.6K90.72%±1.79+1.9σodds
All26.6K90.72%±1.79+1.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,124$33.841.5%2123.80.88×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,064$31.811.5%2125.10.84×
AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 926$27.901.5%2828.90.97×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 671$20.121.5%2239.80.55×
AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 552$16.971.6%5348.41.10×
P250 | Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 546$16.751.6%6348.91.29×
AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 535$16.421.6%5150.01.02×
P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce61 in 498$15.221.6%6253.71.15×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 463$14.191.6%5157.70.88×
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 461$14.111.6%5458.00.93×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 441$13.501.6%6360.61.04×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 431$13.211.6%4462.00.71×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 429$13.151.6%4962.30.79×
P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 413$12.691.6%6464.70.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 403$12.391.6%6166.30.92×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 379$11.611.6%7170.51.01×
P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 376$11.541.6%7071.10.98×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 376$11.531.6%6671.10.93×
P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 341$10.461.6%7778.30.98×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 334$10.271.6%7379.90.91×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 295$9.041.6%8290.60.91×
USP-S | Royal Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 293$9.001.6%9991.11.09×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 264$8.101.6%92101.30.91×
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 226$6.921.6%103118.40.87×
FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 222$6.821.6%107120.20.89×
AUG | Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 197$6.041.6%131135.70.97×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 183$5.631.6%142145.60.98×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 169$5.181.6%130158.20.82×
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 153$4.691.6%160174.70.92×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 152$4.651.6%184176.11.05×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 151$4.641.6%158176.60.89×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 145$4.441.6%176184.60.95×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 145$4.441.6%172184.60.93×
USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 145$4.431.6%180184.90.97×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical1 in 121$4.161.8%212221.20.96×
USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 118$4.061.8%238226.61.05×
FAMAS | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 110$3.781.8%236243.40.97×
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 106$3.671.8%214250.90.85×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 102$3.531.8%262260.81.00×
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 93$3.211.8%260286.70.91×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Uncharted (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 91$3.121.8%295295.01.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 90$3.091.8%304297.91.02×
FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 82$2.841.8%325324.11.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 80$2.761.8%352333.41.06×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 79$2.711.8%279339.60.82×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 75$2.591.8%373355.31.05×
PP-Bizon | Osiris (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 73$2.531.8%342363.60.94×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 73$2.511.8%381366.61.04×
PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 72$2.491.8%351369.50.95×
PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 72$2.481.8%367371.10.99×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 66$2.281.8%409403.71.01×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 66$2.271.8%385405.30.95×
Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 156$1.910.6%194171.01.13×
P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 146$1.780.6%197183.51.07×
Dual Berettas | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 136$1.660.6%212196.61.08×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 131$1.600.6%240204.11.18×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 127$1.550.6%265210.81.26×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 110$1.350.6%260241.81.08×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 101$1.240.6%271263.41.03×
StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 97$1.180.6%314276.81.13×
P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 92$1.120.6%312291.51.07×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 68$0.830.6%422393.51.07×
Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 65$0.790.6%419413.31.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 63$0.770.6%449424.01.06×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 62$0.760.6%473429.61.10×
Galil AR | Connexion (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 38$0.470.6%738694.61.06×
Dual Berettas | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 36$0.440.6%763742.21.03×
Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 34$0.410.6%848796.41.06×
P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$0.330.6%1,082989.61.09×
P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 27$0.330.6%942989.60.95×
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 29$0.320.6%879918.30.96×
Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 28$0.310.6%1,098947.91.16×
P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$0.290.6%1,1161013.41.10×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 25$0.280.6%1,0441049.70.99×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Origami (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 25$0.280.6%1,0611049.71.01×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 17$0.190.6%1,3761546.60.89×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff12.7%$0.100.6%3,1773401.10.93×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/116, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$2.20$0.190.09x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ffMichael$2.20$0.100.05x
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$2.20$3.211.46x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.20$0.100.05x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$2.20$1.350.61x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalalek024 *********$2.20$2.281.04x
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.20$4.652.11x
Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarepiecowy CS2.ME skins.army$2.20$0.310.14x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$2.20$0.760.35x
P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specalek024 *********$2.20$0.330.15x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 18:07 UTC$2.2089.04%77
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$2.2088.83%77
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%#d32ee6 0.6%pink 0.1%classified 3.4%#d32ce6 0.4%#4b69ff 20.4%industrial 6.1%#8847ff 12.6%restricted 7.5%Legendary 0.6%mil spec 12.3%Mythical 6.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%violet 2.9%milspec 4.6%Mil Spec 1.1%blue 3.7%Rare 3.5%#87c7ff 12.7%best hit —