Lucky punch
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.30
Advertised RTP
89.12%
EV $2.05 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.61%
31.3K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/130, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.12%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $2.30 | 89.12% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $2.30 | 88.94% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 6.0%restricted 12.3%violet 1.8%mil spec 16.6%pink 0.4%industrial 20.3%#8847ff 15.2%Mythical 8.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.4%#d32ee6 4.9%Restricted 2.3%#4b69ff 11.6%best hit $208 (90.60x)