Take a look

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$5.00

Advertised RTP

88.97%

EV $4.45 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.79%

4,800 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.26%±13.00679 openings

7 days

89.49%±5.264,142 openings

30 days

87.79%±4.894,800 openings

since tracking started

87.79%±4.894,800 openings

79.5%93.3%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	679	93.26%±13.0	+0.6σ	odds
7d	4,142	89.49%±5.26	+0.2σ	odds
30d	4,800	87.79%±4.89	−0.5σ	odds
All	4,800	87.79%±4.89	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,809 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$284	0.5%	1	0.4	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$228	0.5%	1	0.5	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$218	0.5%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 9,091	$214	0.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$199	0.5%	0	0.6	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$128	0.5%	1	0.9	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$127	0.5%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$111	0.5%	1	1.0	0.99×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,348	$101	0.5%	2	1.1	1.81×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$86.58	0.5%	4	1.3	3.08×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$79.71	0.5%	1	1.4	0.69×
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$71.56	0.5%	2	1.6	1.26×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$69.07	0.5%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,564	$59.82	0.5%	1	1.9	0.53×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$54.16	0.5%	0	2.1	0.00×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$54.03	0.5%	2	2.1	0.95×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$52.51	0.5%	1	2.2	0.46×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 699	$46.92	1.5%	5	6.9	0.73×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 524	$35.04	1.5%	14	9.2	1.52×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 505	$33.78	1.5%	8	9.5	0.84×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 426	$28.51	1.5%	10	11.3	0.88×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 415	$27.74	1.5%	7	11.6	0.60×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 373	$25.00	1.5%	15	12.9	1.16×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 328	$21.96	1.5%	17	14.7	1.16×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 322	$21.49	1.5%	15	15.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 270	$18.01	1.5%	18	17.8	1.01×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 235	$15.73	1.5%	16	20.4	0.78×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 223	$14.91	1.5%	20	21.6	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 214	$14.33	1.5%	23	22.5	1.02×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 210	$14.01	1.5%	24	22.9	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 178	$11.91	1.5%	29	27.0	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 172	$11.47	1.5%	26	28.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 168	$11.23	1.5%	33	28.7	1.15×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$10.93	6.5%	131	126.9	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 37	$10.57	6.5%	132	131.2	1.01×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$10.24	6.5%	135	135.4	1.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$9.72	6.5%	128	142.6	0.90×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$7.99	6.5%	165	173.6	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$7.76	6.5%	181	178.7	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$4.79	2.2%	98	96.2	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$4.69	2.2%	97	98.2	0.99×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$4.50	2.2%	99	102.4	0.97×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$4.44	2.2%	106	103.8	1.02×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 42	$4.06	2.2%	124	113.5	1.09×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 41	$3.92	2.2%	115	117.6	0.98×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$3.83	2.2%	137	120.3	1.14×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$3.69	2.2%	109	124.9	0.87×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 36	$3.42	2.2%	156	134.7	1.16×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$2.56	2.2%	172	180.0	0.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 27	$2.56	2.2%	175	180.0	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 22	$2.12	2.2%	194	217.4	0.89×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$1.45	0.6%	66	81.3	0.81×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 31	$0.77	0.6%	158	153.0	1.03×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.41	0.6%	268	287.4	0.93×
AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	31.4%	$0.08	0.6%	1,565	1509.3	1.04×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/135, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covertKri$$5.00$28456.75x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff$5.00$2.560.51x1m

SG 553 | Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6SpizganyBanan$5.00$3.920.78x1m

CZ75-Auto | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ffDon Malkon$5.00$2.560.51x21m

CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light bluedasiek$5.00$2.120.42x21m

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specDon Malkon$5.00$0.410.08x21m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifieddasiek$5.00$4.690.94x21m

AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ffDon Malkon$5.00$0.080.02x21m

CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffdasiek$5.00$7.761.55x21m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedadamnicho$5.00$9.721.94x21m

AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ffSpoconyMacius2013 skins.army$5.00$0.080.02x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$5.00	88.97%	55

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.0%restricted 9.0%classified 14.4%#d32ee6 3.2%industrial 0.3%#4b69ff 7.4%#8847ff 6.9%pink 2.8%Mythical 10.3%#87c7ff 35.1%light blue 4.5%mil spec 6.0%best hit $284 (56.75x)