Hydrotus

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$50.00
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $44.44 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.43%
3,058 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.38%±19.64360 openings
7 days
85.41%±7.392,541 openings
30 days
85.43%±6.743,058 openings
since tracking started
85.43%±6.743,058 openings
60.0%80.3%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h36080.38%±19.6−0.8σodds
7d2,54185.41%±7.39−0.9σodds
30d3,05885.43%±6.74−1.0σodds
All3,05885.43%±6.74−1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,063 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 100,000$17.5K0.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$11.9K0.5%00.1—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$1,0840.6%00.7—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$1,0680.6%00.7—
MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 313$3352.4%79.80.71×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 188$2012.4%1916.31.16×
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 182$1952.4%2716.81.61×
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 170$1822.4%1018.00.56×
StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 169$1812.4%1218.10.66×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 159$1712.4%1419.20.73×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 133$1422.4%3123.11.34×
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 129$1382.4%2423.81.01×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 126$1352.4%1924.30.78×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 121$1302.4%2025.30.79×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 116$1252.4%2626.30.99×
AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 110$1182.4%1827.90.65×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 106$1132.4%2929.01.00×
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 99$1062.4%2330.90.74×
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 34$1036.8%9989.71.10×
★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 34$1036.8%7690.00.84×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 32$97.256.8%9495.30.99×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 32$95.456.8%9497.10.97×
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 30$91.636.8%121101.11.20×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 25$76.816.8%121120.61.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 21$63.726.8%138145.40.95×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 17$52.806.8%182175.51.04×
★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 188$48.100.6%1416.30.86×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 165$42.230.6%1918.61.02×
USP-S | Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 151$38.700.6%2120.31.04×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 97$24.970.6%4031.41.27×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 91$23.400.6%4433.51.31×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 75$19.280.6%4340.71.06×
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 68$17.410.6%4545.11.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 55$14.160.6%7055.41.26×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 51$13.010.6%4960.30.81×
USP-S | Royal Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 48$12.220.6%6764.21.04×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 39$9.980.6%8578.71.08×
USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 33$8.480.6%10192.61.09×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$6.270.6%140125.21.12×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 19$4.910.6%163159.91.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 18$4.710.6%170166.71.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 17$4.460.6%180176.01.02×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 25$1.450.1%102121.50.84×
UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 22$1.240.1%134142.00.94×
MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 18$1.050.1%143167.70.85×
FAMAS | Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 14$0.830.1%229221.91.03×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/138, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$50.0088.88%46
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 25.3%classified 19.3%restricted 1.0%extraordinary 0.5%pink 0.6%#d32ee6 4.3%Classified 5.7%mil spec 14.2%industrial 5.1%#4b69ff 15.3%#8847ff 4.0%violet 4.6%best hit —