Primary
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$9.50
Advertised RTP
89.02%
EV $8.46 from 62 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.46%
5,676 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,693 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/139, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.02%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.50 | 89.02% | 62 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%#d32ee6 7.6%classified 28.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%mil spec 15.4%Ancient 0.3%Classified 0.4%pink 0.6%violet 0.6%restricted 1.4%#d32ce6 2.1%Legendary 2.2%master 2.6%#4b69ff 13.8%blue 7.2%industrial 7.1%Uncommon 9.4%best hit —