Azure
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.50
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $1.33 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.71%
81.9K openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/140, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.50 | 88.88% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.50 | 88.81% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.8%Rare 0.6%Mythical 0.1%#4b69ff 0.1%restricted 11.2%Legendary 1.0%industrial 1.0%pink 2.8%#8847ff 4.7%mil spec 2.6%#d32ee6 0.7%milspec 1.5%#87c7ff 72.8%best hit $153 (102.2x)