Black widow
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$6.00
Advertised RTP
88.97%
EV $5.34 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.37%
7,135 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,142 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/142, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $6.00 | 88.97% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 3.8%#eb4b4b 0.1%restricted 4.8%covert 0.5%industrial 1.2%classified 12.9%mil spec 4.9%blue 0.3%#d32ee6 0.4%Industrial Grade 0.5%rare 6.3%#4b69ff 64.4%best hit —