1pro1noob
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.50
Advertised RTP
88.95%
EV $3.11 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.79%
10.5K openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1469215, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.95% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.4%classified 7.9%extraordinary 0.1%#4b69ff 58.2%Ancient 0.1%blue 0.1%violet 0.6%pink 0.8%#d32ee6 1.2%red 1.3%Classified 2.0%Restricted 2.1%restricted 8.1%Legendary 2.7%Mythical 3.9%#8847ff 10.5%best hit $199 (56.92x)