Heaton
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$7.00
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $6.22 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.04%
3,657 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,661 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1534817, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 88.92% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.2%restricted 1.0%Legendary 0.3%classified 10.7%Extraordinary 0.5%pink 5.6%mil spec 5.3%#d32ee6 5.9%Rare 8.9%violet 10.5%#8847ff 5.3%milspec 6.6%#4b69ff 38.2%best hit $541 (77.22x)