CS2 KINGUIN
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$18.00
Advertised RTP
88.85%
EV $15.99 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.40%
1,790 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,793 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1538568, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $18.00 | 88.85% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.7%gold 0.0%classified 22.9%extraordinary 0.5%restricted 5.7%red 0.3%#ffd700 0.7%violet 0.9%Restricted 1.4%#4b69ff 35.5%Mythical 3.0%#8847ff 3.0%milspec 21.4%best hit $782 (43.46x)