Fever

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

88.95%

EV $2.67 from 195 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.39%

17.2K openings, odds method

Variance

29.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 27

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.20%±19.203,033 openings

7 days

93.01%±8.8214.4K openings

30 days

91.39%±8.0717.2K openings

since tracking started

91.39%±8.0717.2K openings

66.5%86.3%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,033	86.20%±19.2	−0.3σ	odds
7d	14.4K	93.01%±8.82	+0.9σ	odds
30d	17.2K	91.39%±8.07	+0.6σ	odds
All	17.2K	91.39%±8.07	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values195 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 50,000	$1,253	0.9%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 33,333	$761	0.9%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 25,000	$695	1.0%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 25,000	$585	0.9%	2	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 20,000	$533	1.0%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 20,000	$488	0.9%	0	0.9	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 16,667	$414	0.9%	1	1.0	0.97×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 16,667	$411	0.9%	1	1.0	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 16,667	$392	0.9%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 14,286	$386	1.0%	2	1.2	1.66×
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 14,286	$344	0.9%	2	1.2	1.66×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 12,500	$332	1.0%	1	1.4	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 12,500	$301	0.9%	3	1.4	2.18×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 11,111	$268	0.9%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$245	0.9%	2	1.7	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 9,091	$224	0.9%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 8,333	$217	1.0%	2	2.1	0.97×
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 8,333	$209	0.9%	3	2.1	1.45×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 11,111	$194	0.7%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 11,111	$194	0.7%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 11,111	$183	0.6%	2	1.5	1.29×
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$179	0.7%	2	1.7	1.16×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 10,000	$170	0.6%	3	1.7	1.75×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,091	$163	0.7%	3	1.9	1.59×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 9,091	$155	0.6%	2	1.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 9,091	$151	0.6%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 9,091	$151	0.6%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 8,333	$148	0.7%	3	2.1	1.45×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 8,333	$145	0.7%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 8,333	$141	0.6%	2	2.1	0.97×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,692	$137	0.7%	2	2.2	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 7,692	$134	0.7%	2	2.2	0.90×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 6,667	$117	0.7%	0	2.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 5,556	$97.81	0.7%	3	3.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 5,000	$86.24	0.6%	8	3.4	2.33×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 4,167	$72.47	0.7%	2	4.1	0.48×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,000	$69.91	0.7%	7	4.3	1.63×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,846	$67.11	0.7%	6	4.5	1.34×
★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 3,571	$61.29	0.6%	4	4.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,448	$59.76	0.6%	5	5.0	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 3,226	$55.66	0.6%	3	5.3	0.56×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,857	$49.10	0.6%	14	6.0	2.33×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,857	$48.99	0.6%	6	6.0	1.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 2,857	$48.62	0.6%	8	6.0	1.33×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,632	$45.55	0.6%	6	6.5	0.92×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,632	$45.03	0.6%	8	6.5	1.22×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,083	$36.04	0.6%	8	8.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 571	$26.42	1.7%	25	30.1	0.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 418	$19.39	1.7%	31	41.1	0.75×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 402	$18.61	1.7%	45	42.8	1.05×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 388	$17.95	1.7%	54	44.3	1.22×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 333	$15.44	1.7%	47	51.6	0.91×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 290	$13.43	1.7%	67	59.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 216	$9.98	1.7%	66	79.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 202	$9.36	1.7%	68	85.1	0.80×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 202	$9.34	1.7%	85	85.3	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 182	$8.43	1.7%	101	94.4	1.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 176	$8.14	1.7%	92	97.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 172	$7.98	1.7%	111	99.7	1.11×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 164	$7.59	1.7%	108	104.9	1.03×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 163	$7.57	1.7%	114	105.2	1.08×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 161	$7.46	1.7%	110	106.7	1.03×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 160	$7.41	1.7%	93	107.4	0.87×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 137	$6.35	1.7%	113	125.3	0.90×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 135	$6.26	1.7%	134	127.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 131	$6.09	1.7%	141	130.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 181	$5.35	1.1%	101	94.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 180	$5.31	1.1%	108	95.4	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 176	$5.18	1.1%	97	97.8	0.99×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 174	$5.12	1.1%	113	99.0	1.14×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 170	$5.02	1.1%	111	100.9	1.10×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 164	$4.84	1.1%	103	104.7	0.98×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 163	$4.81	1.1%	109	105.4	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 161	$4.75	1.1%	97	106.6	0.91×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 158	$4.66	1.1%	106	108.6	0.98×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 153	$4.52	1.1%	100	112.1	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 152	$4.47	1.1%	109	113.3	0.96×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 146	$4.30	1.1%	106	117.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 143	$4.22	1.1%	111	120.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 133	$3.92	1.1%	109	129.3	0.84×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 125	$3.70	1.1%	123	137.0	0.90×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 119	$3.51	1.1%	137	144.4	0.95×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 119	$3.50	1.1%	148	144.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 114	$3.37	1.1%	161	150.4	1.07×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 105	$3.11	1.1%	153	163.0	0.94×
Galil AR \| Control (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 571	$2.28	0.1%	38	30.1	1.26×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 500	$2.00	0.1%	30	34.4	0.87×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 455	$1.82	0.2%	47	37.8	1.24×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 415	$1.66	0.1%	60	41.4	1.45×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 413	$1.65	0.1%	43	41.6	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 410	$1.64	0.1%	45	41.9	1.07×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 405	$1.62	0.1%	47	42.5	1.11×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 388	$1.55	0.1%	60	44.3	1.35×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 373	$1.49	0.1%	33	46.1	0.72×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 334	$1.34	0.2%	58	51.4	1.13×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 313	$1.25	0.1%	53	55.0	0.96×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 275	$1.10	0.2%	55	62.6	0.88×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 267	$1.07	0.1%	68	64.3	1.06×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 253	$1.01	0.1%	58	68.1	0.85×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 245	$0.98	0.1%	90	70.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 230	$0.92	0.1%	68	74.8	0.91×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 227	$0.91	0.2%	81	75.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 227	$0.91	0.2%	91	75.6	1.20×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 225	$0.90	0.1%	83	76.3	1.09×
Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 223	$0.89	0.1%	59	77.2	0.76×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 223	$0.89	0.1%	92	77.2	1.19×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 202	$0.81	0.1%	71	84.9	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 198	$0.79	0.1%	86	87.0	0.99×
MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 188	$0.75	0.1%	85	91.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 188	$0.75	0.1%	89	91.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 188	$0.75	0.1%	79	91.6	0.86×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 182	$0.73	0.1%	99	94.2	1.05×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 182	$0.73	0.1%	92	94.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 180	$0.72	0.2%	105	95.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 180	$0.72	0.2%	93	95.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common	1 in 180	$0.72	0.2%	102	95.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 180	$0.72	0.2%	100	95.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 175	$0.70	0.1%	85	98.1	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 170	$0.68	0.1%	80	101.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Sun (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 170	$0.68	0.1%	74	101.1	0.73×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 170	$0.68	0.1%	106	101.1	1.05×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 160	$0.64	0.1%	117	107.4	1.09×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 157	$0.63	0.1%	117	109.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 157	$0.63	0.1%	100	109.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Control (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 157	$0.63	0.1%	116	109.2	1.06×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 147	$0.59	0.1%	118	116.5	1.01×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 145	$0.58	0.1%	143	118.6	1.21×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 140	$0.56	0.1%	125	122.7	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 132	$0.53	0.1%	122	129.8	0.94×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 132	$0.53	0.1%	122	129.8	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 336	$0.52	0.1%	43	51.2	0.84×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 345	$0.52	0.1%	56	49.8	1.12×
Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 339	$0.51	0.1%	56	50.7	1.10×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 332	$0.50	0.1%	45	51.7	0.87×
Galil AR \| Control (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 332	$0.50	0.1%	60	51.7	1.16×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 312	$0.47	0.1%	53	55.2	0.96×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 305	$0.46	0.1%	61	56.4	1.08×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 299	$0.45	0.1%	54	57.6	0.94×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 299	$0.45	0.1%	52	57.6	0.90×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 299	$0.45	0.1%	63	57.6	1.09×
Galil AR \| Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 292	$0.44	0.1%	47	59.0	0.80×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 286	$0.43	0.1%	55	60.2	0.91×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 259	$0.39	0.1%	74	66.3	1.12×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 186	$0.28	0.1%	116	92.5	1.25×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 172	$0.26	0.1%	91	99.7	0.91×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 172	$0.26	0.1%	99	99.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 172	$0.26	0.1%	108	99.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 166	$0.25	0.1%	103	103.6	0.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 166	$0.25	0.1%	84	103.6	0.81×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 153	$0.23	0.1%	110	112.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 139	$0.21	0.1%	106	123.4	0.86×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 133	$0.20	0.1%	104	129.4	0.80×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 133	$0.20	0.1%	140	129.4	1.08×
MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 133	$0.20	0.1%	144	129.4	1.11×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 133	$0.20	0.1%	131	129.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Resupply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 133	$0.20	0.1%	127	129.4	0.98×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 133	$0.20	0.1%	133	129.4	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	155	136.3	1.14×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	142	136.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Resupply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	131	136.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	125	136.3	0.92×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	118	136.3	0.87×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	146	136.3	1.07×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	122	136.3	0.90×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.19	0.1%	141	136.3	1.03×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 119	$0.18	0.1%	141	143.9	0.98×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 119	$0.18	0.1%	129	143.9	0.90×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 119	$0.18	0.1%	156	143.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 119	$0.18	0.1%	118	143.9	0.82×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 113	$0.17	0.1%	151	152.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 113	$0.17	0.1%	171	152.3	1.12×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 113	$0.17	0.1%	159	152.3	1.04×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$0.15	0.1%	178	172.7	1.03×
MP9 \| Nexus (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 93	$0.14	0.1%	188	185.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Resupply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 93	$0.14	0.1%	184	185.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 93	$0.14	0.1%	171	185.0	0.92×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	208	199.2	1.04×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	184	199.2	0.92×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	210	199.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	208	199.2	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	203	199.2	1.02×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	210	199.2	1.05×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.13	0.1%	172	199.2	0.86×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	221	235.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	254	235.5	1.08×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	246	235.5	1.04×
MP9 \| Nexus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	255	235.5	1.08×
MP9 \| Nexus (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	228	235.5	0.97×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	212	235.5	0.90×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	259	235.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Resupply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$0.11	0.1%	264	235.5	1.12×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 62	$0.10	0.1%	303	276.2	1.10×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 62	$0.10	0.1%	281	276.2	1.02×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 65	$0.10	0.1%	251	264.9	0.95×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 66	$0.10	0.1%	250	259.0	0.97×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1567814, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$3.00$1,253417.8x4d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$3.00$585195.0x21h

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$3.00$585195.0x2d

★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700$3.00$533177.5x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldℒisu$3.00$414138.0x1d

★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700olixoliwcia$3.00$411137.1x7d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Jeffrey Epstein$3.00$392130.6x10h

StatTrak™ AWP | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$3.00$386128.7x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryJohny$3.00$386128.7x5d

★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary$3.00$344114.6x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$3.00$0.110.04x3m

M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.00$0.200.07x3m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink$3.00$7.982.66x3m

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violetjanek muzykant$3.00$0.750.25x3m

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$3.00$3.371.12x3m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$3.00$0.130.04x3m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$3.00$0.110.04x3m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendaryjanek muzykant$3.00$13.434.48x3m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$3.00$0.200.07x3m

StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet$3.00$5.311.77x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$3.00	88.95%	195

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.2%legendary 0.0%gold 0.1%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.1%epic 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.1%rare 0.5%sunny 0.0%red 0.1%#d32ce6 4.3%uncommon 1.7%pink 7.1%Legendary 1.6%#8847ff 9.2%violet 9.3%#4b69ff 43.8%Mythical 2.4%restricted 2.2%blue 6.3%Rare 3.5%common 0.6%milspec 6.8%best hit $1,253 (417.8x)