Gallery

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.30

Advertised RTP

88.98%

EV $2.05 from 219 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.73%

18.6K openings, odds method

Variance

12.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.84%±14.762,266 openings

7 days

94.44%±5.7215.4K openings

30 days

92.73%±5.2518.6K openings

since tracking started

92.73%±5.2518.6K openings

84.5%100.0%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,266	99.84%±14.8	+1.4σ	odds
7d	15.4K	94.44%±5.72	+1.9σ	odds
30d	18.6K	92.73%±5.25	+1.4σ	odds
All	18.6K	92.73%±5.25	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values219 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 100,000	$527	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$456	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 50,000	$321	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$212	0.3%	2	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 33,333	$207	0.3%	2	0.6	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 33,333	$204	0.3%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$195	0.4%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$182	0.4%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 25,000	$176	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$176	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 25,000	$175	0.3%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 25,000	$173	0.3%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 25,000	$172	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 25,000	$162	0.3%	2	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$161	0.3%	2	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$159	0.3%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 20,000	$151	0.4%	1	0.9	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$147	0.4%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$142	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 20,000	$142	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 20,000	$135	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$131	0.3%	3	0.9	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$126	0.4%	2	1.1	1.79×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$126	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16,667	$125	0.4%	3	1.1	2.69×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16,667	$124	0.4%	2	1.1	1.79×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$124	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 16,667	$122	0.4%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$121	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 16,667	$120	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$120	0.4%	3	1.1	2.69×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$105	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 14,286	$105	0.4%	5	1.3	3.84×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$104	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 14,286	$103	0.4%	2	1.3	1.53×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$100	0.3%	4	1.3	3.07×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$96.18	0.3%	3	1.3	2.30×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$95.47	0.3%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$93.81	0.3%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 12,500	$93.08	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 12,500	$92.57	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$91.33	0.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 12,500	$89.57	0.4%	2	1.5	1.34×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 12,500	$89.00	0.3%	3	1.5	2.01×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 12,500	$88.91	0.3%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 12,500	$85.24	0.3%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 11,111	$79.68	0.4%	1	1.7	0.60×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 11,111	$78.14	0.3%	2	1.7	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 11,111	$76.27	0.3%	2	1.7	1.19×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$73.99	0.3%	4	1.7	2.39×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$73.96	0.3%	2	1.7	1.19×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$73.27	0.4%	3	1.9	1.61×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$69.20	0.3%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$67.86	0.3%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 9,091	$65.48	0.4%	3	2.0	1.46×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$61.45	0.3%	2	2.0	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 8,333	$59.18	0.3%	4	2.2	1.79×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 8,333	$56.36	0.3%	4	2.2	1.79×
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,692	$55.20	0.4%	5	2.4	2.07×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 7,692	$53.90	0.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$51.56	0.4%	2	2.6	0.77×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 3,704	$49.94	0.7%	4	5.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$46.17	0.7%	6	5.4	1.11×
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$45.85	0.7%	4	5.6	0.72×
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$45.69	0.7%	8	5.6	1.43×
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$45.44	0.7%	8	5.6	1.43×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 3,226	$43.71	0.7%	3	5.8	0.52×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 3,226	$43.42	0.7%	4	5.8	0.69×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,857	$38.26	0.7%	5	6.5	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,564	$34.87	0.7%	7	7.3	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,564	$34.41	0.7%	4	7.3	0.55×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,564	$34.39	0.7%	12	7.3	1.65×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,273	$31.02	0.7%	8	8.2	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,222	$30.02	0.7%	5	8.4	0.60×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,174	$29.34	0.7%	10	8.6	1.17×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,818	$24.46	0.7%	12	10.2	1.17×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,786	$24.08	0.7%	11	10.4	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,754	$23.75	0.7%	9	10.6	0.85×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,282	$21.77	0.8%	12	14.5	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,266	$21.58	0.8%	13	14.7	0.88×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,235	$20.85	0.8%	16	15.1	1.06×
P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,053	$17.96	0.8%	17	17.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,031	$17.51	0.8%	13	18.1	0.72×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 730	$12.42	0.8%	29	25.5	1.14×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 730	$12.41	0.8%	23	25.5	0.90×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 667	$11.28	0.8%	20	27.9	0.72×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 662	$11.22	0.8%	22	28.1	0.78×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 641	$10.87	0.8%	26	29.0	0.90×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 625	$10.58	0.8%	31	29.8	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 610	$10.33	0.8%	45	30.5	1.47×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 595	$10.13	0.8%	37	31.3	1.18×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 592	$10.07	0.8%	22	31.5	0.70×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 575	$9.75	0.8%	34	32.4	1.05×
P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 552	$9.37	0.8%	38	33.7	1.13×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 526	$8.94	0.8%	34	35.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 483	$8.18	0.8%	38	38.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 441	$7.48	0.8%	35	42.3	0.83×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 413	$7.01	0.8%	30	45.1	0.67×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 408	$6.94	0.8%	44	45.6	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 397	$6.74	0.8%	41	46.9	0.87×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 391	$6.64	0.8%	54	47.7	1.13×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 380	$6.46	0.8%	54	49.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Statics (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 376	$6.38	0.8%	47	49.5	0.95×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 365	$6.20	0.8%	45	51.0	0.88×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 351	$5.95	0.8%	62	53.1	1.17×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 345	$5.85	0.8%	50	54.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 330	$5.60	0.8%	53	56.4	0.94×
P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 329	$5.59	0.8%	44	56.6	0.78×
USP-S \| 27 (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 315	$5.36	0.8%	55	59.0	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 314	$5.34	0.8%	71	59.2	1.20×
P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 302	$5.13	0.8%	47	61.6	0.76×
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 297	$5.03	0.8%	63	62.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 292	$4.95	0.8%	64	63.9	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 291	$4.93	0.8%	52	64.0	0.81×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 285	$4.83	0.8%	72	65.4	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 275	$4.68	0.8%	48	67.6	0.71×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 211	$4.17	1.0%	79	88.3	0.90×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 210	$4.14	1.0%	73	88.8	0.82×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 207	$4.08	1.0%	104	90.1	1.15×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 204	$4.04	1.0%	74	91.0	0.81×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 199	$3.93	1.0%	81	93.7	0.86×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 191	$3.78	1.0%	146	97.4	1.50×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 181	$3.58	1.0%	99	102.8	0.96×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 171	$3.38	1.0%	120	108.9	1.10×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 171	$3.37	1.0%	112	109.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 160	$3.16	1.0%	106	116.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 155	$3.07	1.0%	128	119.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Hypnosis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 141	$2.78	1.0%	132	132.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 139	$2.75	1.0%	104	133.9	0.78×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 138	$2.73	1.0%	120	134.8	0.89×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$2.71	1.0%	107	135.7	0.79×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$2.67	1.0%	152	137.8	1.10×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 133	$2.62	1.0%	151	140.4	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 133	$2.62	1.0%	137	140.4	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 133	$2.62	1.0%	110	140.4	0.78×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 130	$2.57	1.0%	128	143.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 127	$2.50	1.0%	119	147.1	0.81×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 613	$2.19	0.2%	48	30.3	1.58×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 568	$1.98	0.2%	30	32.8	0.92×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 463	$1.62	0.2%	86	40.2	2.14×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 452	$1.58	0.2%	47	41.1	1.14×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 433	$1.51	0.2%	32	43.0	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 415	$1.45	0.2%	40	44.9	0.89×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 403	$1.41	0.2%	50	46.2	1.08×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 402	$1.40	0.2%	95	46.4	2.05×
MP5-SD \| Statics (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 395	$1.38	0.2%	46	47.1	0.98×
M249 \| Hypnosis (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 369	$1.29	0.2%	46	50.5	0.91×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 366	$1.28	0.2%	55	50.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 366	$1.28	0.2%	35	50.8	0.69×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 366	$1.28	0.2%	53	50.8	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 358	$1.25	0.2%	50	51.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 358	$1.25	0.2%	39	51.9	0.75×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 355	$1.24	0.2%	41	52.5	0.78×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 344	$1.20	0.2%	35	54.2	0.65×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 344	$1.20	0.2%	51	54.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common	1 in 341	$1.19	0.2%	72	54.6	1.32×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 300	$1.05	0.2%	46	62.0	0.74×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 295	$1.03	0.2%	63	63.1	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 292	$1.02	0.2%	80	63.7	1.26×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 292	$1.02	0.2%	64	63.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common	1 in 275	$0.96	0.2%	75	67.8	1.11×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 270	$0.94	0.2%	68	69.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Statics (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 258	$0.90	0.2%	62	72.2	0.86×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 258	$0.90	0.2%	69	72.2	0.96×
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 249	$0.87	0.2%	225	74.7	3.01×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Hypnosis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 223	$0.78	0.2%	75	83.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 186	$0.65	0.2%	104	100.0	1.04×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$0.65	0.2%	86	100.0	0.86×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 181	$0.63	0.2%	100	103.1	0.97×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 175	$0.61	0.2%	98	106.5	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 163	$0.57	0.2%	110	114.1	0.96×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 163	$0.57	0.2%	118	114.1	1.03×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 163	$0.57	0.2%	133	114.1	1.17×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 160	$0.56	0.2%	124	116.2	1.07×
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 160	$0.56	0.2%	120	116.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 152	$0.53	0.2%	123	122.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$0.52	0.2%	117	125.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$0.52	0.2%	97	125.1	0.78×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 146	$0.51	0.2%	277	127.5	2.17×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 135	$0.47	0.2%	147	138.3	1.06×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 126	$0.44	0.2%	170	147.8	1.15×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.44	0.2%	159	147.8	1.08×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 123	$0.43	0.2%	121	151.2	0.80×
MP5-SD \| Statics (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 120	$0.42	0.2%	153	154.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 117	$0.41	0.2%	167	158.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Hypnosis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 115	$0.40	0.2%	157	162.5	0.97×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Statics (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.40	0.2%	142	162.5	0.87×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 112	$0.39	0.2%	168	166.6	1.01×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 103	$0.36	0.2%	197	180.6	1.09×
MP5-SD \| Statics (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$0.35	0.2%	208	185.8	1.12×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$0.35	0.2%	202	185.8	1.09×
M249 \| Hypnosis (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$0.35	0.2%	183	185.8	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 97	$0.34	0.2%	212	191.2	1.11×
M249 \| Hypnosis (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 97	$0.34	0.2%	164	191.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 97	$0.34	0.2%	155	191.2	0.81×
USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 95	$0.33	0.2%	208	197.0	1.06×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 95	$0.33	0.2%	186	197.0	0.94×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 95	$0.33	0.2%	195	197.0	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 95	$0.33	0.2%	302	197.0	1.53×
M249 \| Hypnosis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.32	0.2%	180	203.1	0.89×
M249 \| Hypnosis (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.32	0.2%	209	203.1	1.03×
USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 92	$0.32	0.2%	169	203.1	0.83×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.32	0.2%	156	203.1	0.77×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.32	0.2%	158	203.1	0.78×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Hypnosis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.32	0.2%	259	203.1	1.28×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.31	0.2%	299	209.6	1.43×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 89	$0.31	0.2%	330	209.6	1.57×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Statics (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 42	$0.30	0.4%	454	446.3	1.02×
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 86	$0.30	0.2%	295	216.7	1.36×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$0.29	0.4%	337	461.0	0.73×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$0.29	0.4%	370	461.0	0.80×
USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 39	$0.28	0.4%	528	477.6	1.11×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 36	$0.26	0.4%	509	514.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 36	$0.26	0.4%	509	514.3	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$0.26	0.4%	394	514.3	0.77×
MP5-SD \| Statics (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 31	$0.22	0.4%	719	607.7	1.18×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Statics (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.22	0.4%	469	607.7	0.77×
MP5-SD \| Statics (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.21	0.4%	603	690.2	0.87×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Hypnosis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.21	0.4%	599	636.8	0.94×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568412, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryMalina$2.30$321139.6x1d

★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal$2.30$233101.3x7d

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covertanalnyterror67_skins.army$2.30$21794.53x5d

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covertWirus$2.30$21794.53x7d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2.30$20790.01x3d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · CovertMambeppe-Makambee$2.30$20790.01x5d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertMaster Oogway$2.30$18278.98x4h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic$2.30$17375.43x3d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epic$2.30$16270.32x23h

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epicSimply_022 skins.army$2.30$16270.32x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecKomar$2.30$4.041.76x1m

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffRahmax$2.30$0.260.11x1m

StatTrak™ M249 | Hypnosis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecrower skins.army$2.30$0.400.17x1m

M249 | Hypnosis (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff✖𝔅𝔢𝔡𝔫𝔞𝔯✖$2.30$0.320.14x1m

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffRZCrt$2.30$0.340.15x1m

Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)weapon · RarePabli†ooo$2.30$0.260.11x1m

AUG | Luxe Trim (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecKomar$2.30$0.310.13x4m

P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New)weapon · restrictedXavi_Skins.army$2.30$2.711.18x4m

MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet$2.30$4.141.80x6m

MP5-SD | Statics (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffGARFIELD$2.30$0.210.09x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 13:17 UTC	$2.30	88.98%	219
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$2.30	89.00%	219

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.2%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%epic 0.0%Ancient 0.0%covert knife 0.2%sunny 0.0%rare 0.7%gold 0.0%red 0.1%#d32ce6 1.2%uncommon 2.2%#8847ff 9.4%Legendary 0.5%classified 0.2%violet 3.4%milspec 34.2%restricted 4.1%pink 1.9%blue 10.6%Mythical 1.6%#4b69ff 24.3%Restricted 0.2%common 1.0%Mil Spec 1.1%Rare 2.8%best hit $321 (139.6x)