Kilowatt

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.20

Advertised RTP

88.99%

EV $1.96 from 229 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.10%

21.3K openings, odds method

Variance

39.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 95

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.24%±20.303,668 openings

7 days

82.63%±9.3017.5K openings

30 days

83.10%±8.4221.3K openings

since tracking started

83.10%±8.4221.3K openings

67.5%88.3%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,668	88.24%±20.3	−0.1σ	odds
7d	17.5K	82.63%±9.30	−1.3σ	odds
30d	21.3K	83.10%±8.42	−1.4σ	odds
All	21.3K	83.10%±8.42	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values229 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 14,286	$589	2.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$479	2.2%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 9,091	$409	2.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 6,667	$296	2.3%	2	3.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 6,667	$295	2.3%	6	3.2	1.87×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,882	$249	2.2%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$230	2.2%	3	4.1	0.74×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 5,263	$229	2.2%	5	4.1	1.23×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$228	2.2%	7	4.1	1.72×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,545	$200	2.3%	8	4.7	1.70×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$195	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 25,000	$181	0.4%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$176	0.4%	3	0.9	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$175	0.4%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$172	0.4%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 25,000	$169	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$168	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$168	0.3%	2	0.9	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 25,000	$162	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$153	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$151	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$149	0.4%	2	1.1	1.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$148	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$143	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$141	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 20,000	$140	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$139	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 20,000	$138	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$134	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 16,667	$130	0.4%	2	1.3	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$125	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$125	0.4%	2	1.3	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$121	0.4%	2	1.3	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16,667	$117	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$114	0.3%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 16,667	$112	0.3%	4	1.3	3.12×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16,667	$112	0.3%	2	1.3	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$109	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$105	0.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$103	0.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$102	0.4%	2	1.5	1.34×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 14,286	$102	0.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$99.64	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$97.93	0.4%	2	1.5	1.34×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$97.79	0.3%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$95.11	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$90.01	0.4%	2	1.7	1.17×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 12,500	$87.89	0.4%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 12,500	$86.81	0.4%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$85.64	0.3%	2	1.7	1.17×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 11,111	$84.28	0.4%	3	1.9	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 11,111	$83.54	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 11,111	$83.15	0.4%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$82.49	0.4%	2	1.9	1.04×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$81.29	0.4%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 11,111	$79.68	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$75.89	0.4%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$75.13	0.4%	2	2.1	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$74.64	0.4%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$73.09	0.4%	1	2.1	0.47×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$72.58	0.4%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$71.76	0.4%	2	2.1	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$71.59	0.4%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$69.59	0.4%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$65.26	0.4%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 8,333	$60.46	0.4%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,692	$55.55	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,143	$53.38	0.4%	3	3.0	1.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 7,143	$52.31	0.4%	2	3.0	0.67×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$50.38	0.4%	0	3.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$46.84	0.4%	3	3.2	0.94×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$45.23	0.4%	3	3.4	0.88×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$43.09	0.4%	4	3.6	1.10×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$42.73	0.4%	1	3.6	0.28×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,263	$38.56	0.4%	4	4.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$37.10	0.4%	7	4.1	1.72×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$36.78	0.4%	4	4.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$36.56	0.4%	7	4.3	1.64×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,762	$33.64	0.4%	4	4.5	0.89×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$30.89	0.4%	5	4.9	1.02×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$30.26	0.4%	8	5.1	1.56×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 3,030	$21.70	0.4%	7	7.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$20.53	0.4%	6	7.5	0.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$19.26	0.4%	9	7.9	1.14×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 2,632	$19.18	0.4%	6	8.1	0.74×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 926	$15.96	0.9%	24	23.1	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 794	$13.73	0.9%	29	26.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 769	$13.30	0.9%	30	27.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 763	$13.19	0.9%	31	28.0	1.11×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 621	$10.73	0.9%	35	34.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 617	$10.61	0.9%	33	34.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 532	$9.17	0.9%	40	40.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 510	$8.80	0.9%	43	41.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 493	$8.48	0.9%	36	43.4	0.83×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 481	$8.27	0.9%	41	44.4	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 446	$7.69	0.9%	46	47.9	0.96×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 413	$7.12	0.9%	44	51.7	0.85×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 392	$6.76	0.9%	63	54.5	1.16×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 376	$6.49	0.9%	64	56.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$6.04	0.9%	72	60.9	1.18×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 321	$5.52	0.9%	61	66.7	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 316	$5.46	0.9%	70	67.5	1.04×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 310	$5.34	0.9%	69	69.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 300	$5.17	0.9%	70	71.2	0.98×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 282	$4.85	0.9%	61	75.9	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 279	$4.82	0.9%	70	76.5	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 264	$4.55	0.9%	84	81.0	1.04×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 235	$4.06	0.9%	87	90.8	0.96×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 224	$3.86	0.9%	92	95.5	0.96×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 213	$3.68	0.9%	100	100.2	1.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 213	$3.67	0.9%	96	100.4	0.96×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 211	$3.64	0.9%	90	101.3	0.89×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 198	$3.42	0.9%	93	107.7	0.86×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 197	$3.40	0.9%	100	108.3	0.92×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$2.75	1.9%	263	285.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 70	$2.56	1.9%	307	306.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$2.46	1.9%	304	318.4	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$2.41	1.9%	324	325.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$2.41	1.9%	310	325.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 53	$1.94	1.9%	405	403.8	1.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$1.93	1.9%	433	406.0	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$1.75	1.9%	433	447.6	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$1.63	1.9%	485	480.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,389	$1.48	0.1%	19	15.4	1.24×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,282	$1.30	0.1%	20	16.7	1.20×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,282	$1.30	0.1%	17	16.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 1,235	$1.25	0.1%	12	17.3	0.69×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,190	$1.21	0.1%	22	17.9	1.23×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 1,124	$1.15	0.1%	22	19.0	1.16×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,010	$1.03	0.1%	27	21.2	1.28×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 943	$0.96	0.1%	22	22.6	0.97×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 943	$0.96	0.1%	22	22.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 943	$0.96	0.1%	14	22.6	0.62×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 935	$0.95	0.1%	25	22.9	1.09×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 935	$0.95	0.1%	32	22.9	1.40×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$0.92	0.1%	19	23.7	0.80×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 877	$0.89	0.1%	20	24.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 877	$0.89	0.1%	20	24.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 847	$0.86	0.1%	28	25.2	1.11×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 847	$0.86	0.1%	19	25.2	0.75×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$0.85	0.1%	27	25.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$0.85	0.1%	32	25.6	1.25×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 826	$0.84	0.1%	21	25.9	0.81×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 826	$0.84	0.1%	24	25.9	0.93×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 813	$0.83	0.1%	27	26.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 806	$0.82	0.1%	16	26.5	0.60×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 806	$0.82	0.1%	36	26.5	1.36×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 629	$0.64	0.1%	27	34.0	0.79×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 599	$0.61	0.1%	35	35.7	0.98×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 588	$0.60	0.1%	41	36.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 588	$0.60	0.1%	45	36.3	1.24×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 578	$0.59	0.1%	28	37.0	0.76×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 541	$0.55	0.1%	33	39.5	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 510	$0.52	0.1%	51	41.9	1.22×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 472	$0.48	0.1%	47	45.3	1.04×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 461	$0.47	0.1%	47	46.4	1.01×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 452	$0.46	0.1%	55	47.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 452	$0.46	0.1%	43	47.2	0.91×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 433	$0.44	0.1%	56	49.4	1.13×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 422	$0.43	0.1%	56	50.6	1.11×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 422	$0.43	0.1%	63	50.6	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 422	$0.43	0.1%	45	50.6	0.89×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 413	$0.42	0.1%	53	51.7	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 392	$0.40	0.1%	53	54.5	0.97×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 392	$0.40	0.1%	62	54.5	1.14×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 392	$0.40	0.1%	55	54.5	1.01×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 373	$0.38	0.1%	48	57.3	0.84×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 373	$0.38	0.1%	60	57.3	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 364	$0.37	0.1%	62	58.8	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 364	$0.37	0.1%	55	58.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 344	$0.35	0.1%	49	62.2	0.79×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 344	$0.35	0.1%	77	62.2	1.24×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 334	$0.34	0.1%	46	63.9	0.72×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 305	$0.31	0.1%	86	70.1	1.23×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 305	$0.31	0.1%	75	70.1	1.07×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 295	$0.30	0.1%	67	72.4	0.92×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 150	$0.29	0.1%	128	142.1	0.90×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 148	$0.28	0.1%	160	144.0	1.11×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 163	$0.25	0.1%	143	130.8	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 127	$0.24	0.1%	152	167.9	0.91×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 127	$0.24	0.1%	152	167.9	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 122	$0.23	0.1%	175	175.2	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 122	$0.23	0.1%	201	175.2	1.15×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 122	$0.23	0.1%	174	175.2	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 117	$0.22	0.1%	165	183.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 117	$0.22	0.1%	179	183.1	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	234	201.5	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	227	201.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	197	201.5	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	217	201.5	1.08×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	233	201.5	1.16×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	204	201.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 106	$0.20	0.1%	218	201.5	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 95	$0.18	0.1%	225	223.9	1.00×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 95	$0.18	0.1%	240	223.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 95	$0.18	0.1%	230	223.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 95	$0.18	0.1%	208	223.9	0.93×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 95	$0.18	0.1%	221	223.9	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 90	$0.17	0.1%	271	237.0	1.14×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 90	$0.17	0.1%	230	237.0	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 90	$0.17	0.1%	236	237.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 90	$0.17	0.1%	253	237.0	1.07×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$0.16	0.1%	252	251.9	1.00×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$0.16	0.1%	268	251.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 85	$0.16	0.1%	253	251.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 85	$0.16	0.1%	231	251.9	0.92×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.14	0.1%	276	287.8	0.96×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.14	0.1%	300	287.8	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.14	0.1%	303	287.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.14	0.1%	313	287.8	1.09×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	365	335.9	1.09×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	331	335.9	0.99×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	338	335.9	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	317	335.9	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	333	335.9	0.99×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	342	335.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	273	335.9	0.81×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.12	0.1%	312	335.9	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	398	366.4	1.09×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	354	366.4	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	367	366.4	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	357	366.4	0.97×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	364	366.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	375	366.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	363	366.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	352	366.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	341	366.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	401	366.4	1.09×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.11	0.1%	334	366.4	0.91×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568433, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$2.20$479217.8x7h

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2.20$296134.4x6d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2.20$296134.4x8d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$2.20$295134.2x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4bbetlejadrian15$2.20$295134.2x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4bfallen'$2.20$295134.2x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4bŁysy$2.20$295134.2x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$2.20$295134.2x5d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4bsajkoTMphskins.armyCS2.ME$2.20$295134.2x6d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700JOKERSS$2.20$249113.3x6h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Motorized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecMati -_-$2.20$0.110.05x28s

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedKILY$2.20$1.630.74x28s

StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkvxbag7skins.army11$2.20$1.930.88x28s

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffARMANE$2.20$0.110.05x2m

Tec-9 | Slag (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffkOnDi99/skins.army$2.20$0.120.05x2m

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.20$0.110.05x3m

MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$2.20$0.400.18x3m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffBIGWINALLADIN$2.20$0.120.05x3m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec→●σѕкαя●←⭕⃤$2.20$0.230.10x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$2.20	88.99%	229

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.3%Covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.2%epic 0.0%sunny 0.0%gold 0.0%red 0.1%classified 2.5%Ancient 0.0%Classified 0.8%pink 3.0%#8847ff 7.8%restricted 5.7%Legendary 0.7%violet 6.0%Mythical 1.7%Mil Spec Grade 6.3%Mil Spec 1.5%milspec 3.2%Rare 1.6%#4b69ff 48.6%blue 9.9%best hit $479 (217.8x)