Ascent

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$0.70

Advertised RTP

88.97%

EV $0.62 from 140 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.58%

71.1K openings, odds method

Variance

7.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.87%±6.127,571 openings

7 days

88.93%±2.2257.5K openings

30 days

89.58%±2.0071.1K openings

since tracking started

89.58%±2.0071.1K openings

79.0%85.8%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7,571	85.87%±6.12	−1.0σ	odds
7d	57.5K	88.93%±2.22	−0.0σ	odds
30d	71.1K	89.58%±2.00	+0.6σ	odds
All	71.1K	89.58%±2.00	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 1,220	$39.79	5.2%	60	58.7	1.02×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 500	$16.22	5.2%	147	143.1	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 424	$13.79	5.2%	173	168.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 262	$8.50	5.2%	270	273.3	0.99×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 161	$6.24	6.2%	453	444.3	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 158	$6.11	6.2%	440	453.6	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 121	$4.68	6.2%	606	592.4	1.02×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 99	$3.84	6.2%	727	721.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$3.74	6.2%	730	741.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 87	$3.39	6.2%	814	817.8	1.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$3.02	6.2%	943	917.9	1.03×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 77	$2.99	6.2%	931	927.2	1.00×
FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 91	$1.63	2.9%	851	784.2	1.09×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 60	$1.07	2.9%	1,128	1194.1	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 59	$1.05	2.9%	1,220	1217.0	1.00×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 58	$1.04	2.9%	1,249	1228.5	1.02×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 54	$0.96	2.9%	1,376	1330.8	1.03×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$0.74	2.9%	1,718	1726.4	1.00×
FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$0.72	2.9%	1,795	1774.4	1.01×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,389	$0.69	0.1%	40	51.5	0.78×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,282	$0.61	0.1%	56	55.8	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,235	$0.59	0.1%	56	58.0	0.97×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,176	$0.56	0.1%	55	60.8	0.90×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,163	$0.55	0.1%	53	61.5	0.86×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,111	$0.53	0.1%	54	64.4	0.84×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 909	$0.43	0.1%	88	78.7	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 909	$0.43	0.1%	92	78.7	1.17×
Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 800	$0.38	0.1%	94	89.4	1.05×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 758	$0.36	0.1%	91	94.4	0.96×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 714	$0.34	0.1%	88	100.2	0.88×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 694	$0.33	0.1%	95	103.0	0.92×
FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 633	$0.30	0.1%	124	113.0	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 568	$0.27	0.1%	123	125.9	0.98×
FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 568	$0.27	0.1%	156	125.9	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common	1 in 546	$0.26	0.1%	144	130.9	1.10×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 546	$0.26	0.1%	102	130.9	0.78×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 526	$0.25	0.1%	131	135.9	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 526	$0.25	0.1%	129	135.9	0.95×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 483	$0.23	0.1%	161	148.1	1.09×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 483	$0.23	0.1%	137	148.1	0.93×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 483	$0.23	0.1%	129	148.1	0.87×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 483	$0.23	0.1%	134	148.1	0.90×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 483	$0.23	0.1%	145	148.1	0.98×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 463	$0.22	0.1%	171	154.5	1.11×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 463	$0.22	0.1%	159	154.5	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 463	$0.22	0.1%	169	154.5	1.09×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 463	$0.22	0.1%	155	154.5	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 442	$0.21	0.1%	161	161.7	1.00×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 442	$0.21	0.1%	193	161.7	1.19×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 422	$0.20	0.1%	142	169.6	0.84×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 422	$0.20	0.1%	170	169.6	1.00×
XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 379	$0.18	0.1%	168	188.9	0.89×
FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 379	$0.18	0.1%	207	188.9	1.10×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 379	$0.18	0.1%	174	188.9	0.92×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 337	$0.16	0.1%	225	212.5	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 274	$0.13	0.1%	244	261.1	0.93×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 274	$0.13	0.1%	256	261.1	0.98×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 274	$0.13	0.1%	277	261.1	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	265	283.3	0.94×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	291	283.3	1.03×
XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	258	283.3	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	277	283.3	0.98×
XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	268	283.3	0.95×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	299	283.3	1.06×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 253	$0.12	0.1%	316	283.3	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 211	$0.10	0.1%	340	339.8	1.00×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 211	$0.10	0.1%	320	339.8	0.94×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 189	$0.09	0.1%	364	377.8	0.96×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 189	$0.09	0.1%	383	377.8	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 189	$0.09	0.1%	324	377.8	0.86×
Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 168	$0.08	0.1%	417	425.0	0.98×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 168	$0.08	0.1%	433	425.0	1.02×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	476	485.8	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	509	485.8	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	519	485.8	1.07×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	496	485.8	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	483	485.8	0.99×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	479	485.8	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	474	485.8	0.98×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	473	485.8	0.97×
XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	514	485.8	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	473	485.8	0.97×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	473	485.8	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	468	485.8	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	438	485.8	0.90×
P90 \| Blue Tac (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	478	485.8	0.98×
Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	490	485.8	1.01×
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	475	485.8	0.98×
P250 \| Plum Netting (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	499	485.8	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	478	485.8	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	475	485.8	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 147	$0.07	0.1%	481	485.8	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	713	679.7	1.05×
Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	716	679.7	1.05×
P90 \| Blue Tac (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	652	679.7	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	604	679.7	0.89×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	684	679.7	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	638	679.7	0.94×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	667	679.7	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	696	679.7	1.02×
P90 \| Blue Tac (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	666	679.7	0.98×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	709	679.7	1.04×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	672	679.7	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	681	679.7	1.00×
P250 \| Plum Netting (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	710	679.7	1.04×
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Well-Worn)weapon · Common	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	697	679.7	1.03×
P250 \| Plum Netting (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	666	679.7	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	642	679.7	0.94×
MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	748	679.7	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	660	679.7	0.97×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	674	679.7	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	676	679.7	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	688	679.7	1.01×
P90 \| Blue Tac (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	671	679.7	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	674	679.7	0.99×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	709	679.7	1.04×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	648	679.7	0.95×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	679	679.7	1.00×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	668	679.7	0.98×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	664	679.7	0.98×
XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 105	$0.05	0.1%	670	679.7	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 78	$0.04	0.1%	899	921.5	0.98×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 78	$0.04	0.1%	936	921.5	1.02×
Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 78	$0.04	0.1%	935	921.5	1.01×
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 78	$0.04	0.1%	892	921.5	0.97×
MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 78	$0.04	0.1%	953	921.5	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 78	$0.04	0.1%	933	921.5	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	827	850.0	0.97×
Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	910	850.0	1.07×
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	845	850.0	0.99×
P250 \| Plum Netting (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	876	850.0	1.03×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	896	850.0	1.05×
P90 \| Blue Tac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	861	850.0	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	833	850.0	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	900	850.0	1.06×
P250 \| Plum Netting (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	810	850.0	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	883	850.0	1.04×
MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	856	850.0	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	832	850.0	0.98×
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 84	$0.04	0.1%	843	850.0	0.99×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568505, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$39.7956.84x2h

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pinkzentxzentx-skins.army$0.70$39.7956.84x10h

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$39.7956.84x20h

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$39.7956.84x22h

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$39.7956.84x1d

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pinkPony.67skins.army$0.70$39.7956.84x1d

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$39.7956.84x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.70$0.070.10x29s

Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Well-Worn)weapon · Common$0.70$0.050.07x29s

Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight$0.70$0.050.07x29s

USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedheavy wpierdol$0.70$0.741.06x29s

Negev | Sour Grapes (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9$0.70$0.090.13x1m

FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.70$0.180.26x1m

Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.70$0.040.06x1m

R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9usiℒ skins.army$0.70$0.090.13x1m

SG 553 | Night Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerermanita$0.70$0.050.07x3m

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommonvokyy☂$0.70$0.961.37x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$0.70	88.97%	140

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.1%Mythical 3.6%classified 1.3%rare 0.6%Classified 0.8%violet 2.3%#4b69ff 1.2%Rare 4.3%blue 3.6%uncommon 3.8%restricted 2.5%Uncommon 2.7%#5e98d9 11.3%milspec 1.3%common 4.8%industrial 3.3%#b0c3d9 26.3%Common 3.7%light blue 1.4%consumer 9.0%gray 9.9%blueLight 0.9%grey 1.2%best hit $39.79 (56.84x)