Boreal

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
89.01%
EV $0.40 from 145 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.08%
69.6K openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.69%±5.749,590 openings
7 days
89.22%±2.3258.9K openings
30 days
90.08%±2.1369.6K openings
since tracking started
90.08%±2.1369.6K openings
83.5%89.8%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h9,59089.69%±5.74+0.2σodds
7d58.9K89.22%±2.32+0.2σodds
30d69.6K90.08%±2.13+1.0σodds
All69.6K90.08%±2.13+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values145 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 1,639$32.875.0%4642.71.08×
AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 775$15.525.0%8790.20.96×
AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 377$7.555.0%191185.41.03×
AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 372$7.435.0%201188.21.07×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 228$4.575.0%312306.41.02×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 169$3.805.6%424414.11.02×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 168$3.785.6%420416.21.01×
AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 157$3.545.6%422444.90.95×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 85$1.915.6%811824.00.98×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 73$1.655.6%991954.11.04×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 73$1.645.6%958959.71.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 52$1.175.6%1,3241345.10.98×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 36$0.815.6%2,0161943.11.04×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 114$0.761.7%601614.10.98×
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 114$0.761.7%629613.41.03×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 110$0.731.7%660638.61.03×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 110$0.731.7%661638.61.04×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 105$0.701.7%698665.91.05×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 105$0.701.7%675665.91.01×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 97$0.651.7%683717.70.95×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 96$0.641.7%751728.81.03×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 86$0.571.7%828817.71.01×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 83$0.551.7%854847.81.01×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 66$0.441.7%1,0551059.71.00×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 62$0.411.7%1,1111137.30.98×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 840$0.350.1%9883.21.18×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 1,010$0.340.1%6969.21.00×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 952$0.320.1%6473.40.87×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 952$0.320.1%6973.40.94×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon1 in 893$0.300.1%8578.31.09×
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 893$0.300.1%7678.30.97×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 893$0.300.1%7478.30.94×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 862$0.290.1%8681.11.06×
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 775$0.260.1%10490.21.15×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 625$0.210.1%103111.90.92×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 595$0.200.1%126117.51.07×
Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 595$0.200.1%129117.51.10×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 565$0.190.1%123123.80.99×
P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 565$0.190.1%142123.81.15×
MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · common1 in 565$0.190.1%122123.80.99×
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 565$0.190.1%151123.81.22×
Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 535$0.180.1%108130.80.83×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 535$0.180.1%133130.81.02×
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 505$0.170.1%136138.50.98×
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 505$0.170.1%172138.51.24×
P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 505$0.170.1%121138.50.87×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 505$0.170.1%152138.51.10×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 505$0.170.1%132138.50.95×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 446$0.150.1%180156.71.15×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 388$0.130.1%169180.50.94×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 328$0.110.1%161213.30.75×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 298$0.100.1%199235.00.85×
P90 | Mustard Gas (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 298$0.100.1%232235.00.99×
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 298$0.100.1%231235.00.98×
Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 298$0.100.1%242235.01.03×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 298$0.100.1%207235.00.88×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 268$0.090.1%268260.91.03×
P2000 | Marsh (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 268$0.090.1%254260.90.97×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 268$0.090.1%262260.91.00×
Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 238$0.080.1%317293.81.08×
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 238$0.080.1%312293.81.06×
P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 238$0.080.1%286293.80.97×
Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 238$0.080.1%291293.80.99×
Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 238$0.080.1%269293.80.92×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 238$0.080.1%315293.81.07×
FAMAS | Palm (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 208$0.070.1%321335.70.96×
Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 208$0.070.1%328335.70.98×
SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 208$0.070.1%341335.71.02×
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 208$0.070.1%334335.70.99×
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 208$0.070.1%346335.71.03×
MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 208$0.070.1%326335.70.97×
MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · common1 in 208$0.070.1%343335.71.02×
Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 179$0.060.1%371391.70.95×
M249 | Sage Camo (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%404391.71.03×
UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%401391.71.02×
G3SG1 | Green Cell (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%357391.70.91×
Negev | Raw Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%412391.71.05×
MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%406391.71.04×
AUG | Commando Company (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%417391.71.06×
P250 | Copper Oxide (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%414391.71.06×
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 179$0.060.1%358391.70.91×
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 179$0.060.1%380391.70.97×
P90 | Mustard Gas (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 179$0.060.1%370391.70.94×
Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%405391.71.03×
P90 | Mustard Gas (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%408391.71.04×
MP9 | Pine (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 179$0.060.1%387391.70.99×
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%422391.71.08×
MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 179$0.060.1%389391.70.99×
P2000 | Marsh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%374391.70.95×
MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%375391.70.96×
Galil AR | Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%398391.71.02×
P2000 | Marsh (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%409391.71.04×
Galil AR | Acid Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%391391.71.00×
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 179$0.060.1%411391.71.05×
MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%583587.60.99×
MP9 | Pine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%617587.61.05×
SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%610587.61.04×
UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%570587.60.97×
UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%592587.61.01×
Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%590587.61.00×
P250 | Copper Oxide (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%612587.61.04×
Negev | Raw Ceramic (Well-Worn)weapon · Common1 in 119$0.040.1%563587.60.96×
M249 | Sage Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%559587.60.95×
MP9 | Pine (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%589587.61.00×
Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 119$0.040.1%593587.61.01×
SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%610587.61.04×
FAMAS | Palm (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%609587.61.04×
Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%599587.61.02×
Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%520587.60.89×
G3SG1 | Green Cell (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%582587.60.99×
MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%566587.60.96×
AUG | Commando Company (Field-Tested)weapon · common1 in 119$0.040.1%565587.60.96×
M249 | Sage Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%609587.61.04×
AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%576587.60.98×
G3SG1 | Green Cell (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%558587.60.95×
MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 119$0.040.1%591587.61.01×
Galil AR | Acid Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 119$0.040.1%545587.60.93×
Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 119$0.040.1%593587.61.01×
P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 119$0.040.1%614587.61.05×
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 119$0.040.1%601587.61.02×
Negev | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 81$0.030.1%834868.70.96×
M249 | Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%764783.40.98×
FAMAS | Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%795783.41.01×
P250 | Copper Oxide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%833783.41.06×
AUG | Commando Company (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%773783.40.99×
AUG | Commando Company (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%766783.40.98×
G3SG1 | Green Cell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%772783.40.99×
UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%776783.40.99×
G3SG1 | Green Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%773783.40.99×
Negev | Raw Ceramic (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%736783.40.94×
MP9 | Pine (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%747783.40.95×
Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%778783.40.99×
MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%783783.41.00×
P250 | Copper Oxide (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%800783.41.02×
Negev | Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%779783.40.99×
P250 | Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%747783.40.95×
SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%802783.41.02×
Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Common1 in 89$0.030.1%772783.40.99×
FAMAS | Palm (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%747783.40.95×
FAMAS | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%826783.41.05×
M249 | Sage Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%769783.40.98×
MP9 | Pine (Minimal Wear)weapon · common1 in 89$0.030.1%765783.40.98×
SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%818783.41.04×
UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%827783.41.06×
Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 89$0.030.1%772783.40.99×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568604, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$0.4589.01%145
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.9%#d32ce6 1.0%#8847ff 9.2%blue 3.8%uncommon 1.4%#4b69ff 6.5%Uncommon 3.4%Rare 2.8%#5e98d9 13.5%common 2.6%industrial 2.9%blueLight 0.2%milspec 0.3%#b0c3d9 46.9%consumer 2.6%Common 2.0%best hit $32.87 (73.04x)