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Radiant

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$0.70
Advertised RTP
88.85%
EV $0.62 from 140 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.93%
48.3K openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
83.29%±7.926,994 openings
7 days
88.35%±3.3840.2K openings
30 days
88.93%±3.0948.3K openings
since tracking started
88.93%±3.0948.3K openings
74.5%83.5%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6,99483.29%±7.92−1.4σodds
7d40.2K88.35%±3.38−0.3σodds
30d48.3K88.93%±3.09−0.0σodds
All48.3K88.93%±3.09−0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 1,299$56.437.0%2837.30.75×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 541$23.477.0%6389.50.70×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 319$13.867.0%121151.50.80×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 219$9.487.0%180221.20.81×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 164$7.107.0%224295.30.76×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 152$6.597.0%271318.50.85×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 127$5.507.0%305381.40.80×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 125$5.437.0%301386.30.78×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 125$5.407.0%264388.20.68×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 408$2.881.1%371118.63.13×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 385$2.711.1%405125.83.22×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 348$2.461.1%109138.90.78×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 302$2.131.1%134160.20.84×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 285$2.011.1%150169.90.88×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 190$1.341.1%202254.60.79×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 190$1.341.1%205254.60.81×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 190$1.341.1%190254.60.75×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 160$1.131.1%233302.00.77×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 153$1.081.1%295316.10.93×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 145$1.021.1%298334.90.89×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 128$0.901.1%303379.50.80×
P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 128$0.901.1%290379.50.76×
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 106$0.751.1%375455.50.82×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 102$0.721.1%379474.30.80×
MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 99$0.701.1%388487.90.80×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 82$0.581.1%470588.60.80×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 72$0.511.1%547669.40.82×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 131$0.440.5%508369.81.37×
P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 131$0.440.5%489369.81.32×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 125$0.420.5%491387.21.27×
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 122$0.410.5%293396.90.74×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 116$0.390.5%293417.20.70×
MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 116$0.390.5%280417.20.67×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 98$0.330.5%323492.70.66×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 98$0.330.5%315492.70.64×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Well-Worn)weapon · Uncommon1 in 95$0.320.5%393508.20.77×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 89$0.300.5%372542.10.69×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common1 in 65$0.220.5%491739.10.66×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight1 in 65$0.220.5%529739.10.72×
Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 63$0.210.5%503774.40.65×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 60$0.200.5%548813.20.67×
P250 | Red Tide (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.200.5%445813.20.55×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 57$0.190.5%661855.80.77×
P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 57$0.190.5%624855.80.73×
FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 57$0.190.5%629855.80.74×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 57$0.190.5%633855.80.74×
M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight1 in 57$0.190.5%541855.80.63×
MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 54$0.180.5%661903.70.73×
MP9 | Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare1 in 51$0.170.5%653956.40.68×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 51$0.170.5%664956.40.69×
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 51$0.170.5%698956.40.73×
P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 51$0.170.5%670956.40.70×
P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 461$0.150.1%443105.04.22×
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 461$0.150.1%387105.03.68×
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 461$0.150.1%407105.03.87×
SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 461$0.150.1%420105.04.00×
Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 461$0.150.1%392105.03.73×
MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 461$0.150.1%342105.03.26×
MP7 | Short Ochre (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 246$0.080.1%176196.50.90×
SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 246$0.080.1%157196.50.80×
Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 246$0.080.1%398196.52.03×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 246$0.080.1%370196.51.88×
M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 246$0.080.1%275196.51.40×
P250 | Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 216$0.070.1%245224.61.09×
Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 216$0.070.1%199224.60.89×
MAC-10 | Bronzer (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 216$0.070.1%178224.60.79×
SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 216$0.070.1%289224.61.29×
P250 | Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 185$0.060.1%441262.31.68×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 185$0.060.1%340262.31.30×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 185$0.060.1%315262.31.20×
CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 185$0.060.1%287262.31.09×
P250 | Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 185$0.060.1%264262.31.01×
FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 185$0.060.1%207262.30.79×
XM1014 | Canvas Cloud (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 185$0.060.1%162262.30.62×
P90 | Desert Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 185$0.060.1%162262.30.62×
G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 185$0.060.1%203262.30.77×
FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial1 in 185$0.060.1%149262.30.57×
Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 185$0.060.1%415262.31.58×
M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 185$0.060.1%399262.31.52×
SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 185$0.060.1%367262.31.40×
M4A4 | Steel Work (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 185$0.060.1%337262.31.28×
FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 185$0.060.1%328262.31.25×
XM1014 | Canvas Cloud (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.040.1%346393.50.88×
P90 | Desert Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.040.1%360393.50.91×
G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.040.1%358393.50.91×
SCAR-20 | Short Ochre (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.040.1%275393.50.70×
PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.040.1%257393.50.65×
Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight1 in 123$0.040.1%248393.50.63×
MP9 | Multi-Terrain (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.040.1%215393.50.55×
PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.040.1%396393.51.01×
CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.040.1%403393.51.02×
P250 | Sedimentary (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 123$0.040.1%533393.51.35×
Nova | Marsh Grass (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 184$0.030.0%192262.80.73×
CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%457259.91.76×
P90 | Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%428259.91.65×
SCAR-20 | Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%409259.91.57×
Nova | Marsh Grass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%448259.91.72×
G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%444259.91.71×
MAC-10 | Bronzer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%409259.91.57×
Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%449259.91.73×
MP9 | Multi-Terrain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%468259.91.80×
SCAR-20 | Short Ochre (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%438259.91.69×
MP9 | Multi-Terrain (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%450259.91.73×
PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common1 in 186$0.030.0%341259.91.31×
MP7 | Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%352259.91.35×
Nova | Marsh Grass (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%352259.91.35×
Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%333259.91.28×
XM1014 | Canvas Cloud (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%328259.91.26×
PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%356259.91.37×
MP9 | Multi-Terrain (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%361259.91.39×
SCAR-20 | Short Ochre (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%362259.91.39×
CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Well-Worn)weapon · Common1 in 186$0.030.0%349259.91.34×
XM1014 | Canvas Cloud (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%337259.91.30×
P90 | Desert Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%332259.91.28×
MAC-10 | Bronzer (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%351259.91.35×
Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%329259.91.27×
MP7 | Short Ochre (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%330259.91.27×
Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%325259.91.25×
G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Field-Tested)weapon · Common1 in 186$0.030.0%354259.91.36×
PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%343259.91.32×
MP7 | Short Ochre (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%348259.91.34×
Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%374259.91.44×
MAC-10 | Bronzer (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%356259.91.37×
Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Field-Tested)weapon · Common1 in 186$0.030.0%379259.91.46×
P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%315259.91.21×
CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Field-Tested)weapon · Common1 in 186$0.030.0%320259.91.23×
XM1014 | Canvas Cloud (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%330259.91.27×
Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%301259.91.16×
FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 186$0.030.0%298259.91.15×
Nova | Marsh Grass (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%283259.91.09×
M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 186$0.030.0%283259.91.09×
MP9 | Multi-Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%258259.90.99×
Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 186$0.030.0%230259.90.88×
MP7 | Short Ochre (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%206259.90.79×
MAC-10 | Bronzer (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%219259.90.84×
SCAR-20 | Short Ochre (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%201259.90.77×
G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%192259.90.74×
SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 186$0.030.0%208259.90.80×
Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 186$0.030.0%165259.90.63×
Nova | Marsh Grass (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 125$0.020.0%457386.71.18×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568707, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pinkSweetTatusiek2115_skins.army$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pinkklops2115$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pinkK R U P I E R$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pinkcycaty_snajper. skins.army$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink『skins.army』CS2.ME$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pinkⓘⓒⓨ skins.army$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.70$76.03108.6x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pinkjongmen. CS2.ME$0.70$76.03108.6x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$0.70$5.407.71x
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecgamusiek69 skins.army$0.70$0.390.56x
P250 | Sedimentary (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9$0.70$0.040.06x
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight$0.70$0.220.31x
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetAndrzej Gruda$0.70$0.901.29x
Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$0.70$0.030.04x
PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKogut$0.70$0.030.04x
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$0.70$7.1010.14x
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Well-Worn)weapon · Uncommon$0.70$0.320.46x
P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9ezbin2017 <skins.army>$0.70$0.190.27x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 21:11 UTC$0.7088.85%140
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$0.7088.96%140
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 2.0%Legendary 0.2%Mythical 2.6%violet 4.7%uncommon 0.5%blue 12.1%Rare 10.9%milspec 3.6%Mil Spec 1.0%Uncommon 3.8%#4b69ff 4.8%common 1.5%blueLight 6.3%#5e98d9 6.3%industrial 4.2%Common 5.2%consumer 22.5%light blue 0.5%Industrial 0.5%#b0c3d9 6.7%best hit $76.03 (108.6x)