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A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.20

Advertised RTP

88.81%

EV $1.95 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.60%

12.8K openings, odds method

Variance

11.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.44%±13.762,369 openings

7 days

89.50%±6.4410.8K openings

30 days

89.60%±5.9312.8K openings

since tracking started

89.60%±5.9312.8K openings

79.0%93.5%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,369	93.44%±13.8	+0.7σ	odds
7d	10.8K	89.50%±6.44	+0.2σ	odds
30d	12.8K	89.60%±5.93	+0.3σ	odds
All	12.8K	89.60%±5.93	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$633	1.3%	2	0.5	—
AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$238	1.5%	2	1.5	1.30×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 6,250	$173	1.4%	1	2.0	0.49×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$146	1.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$141	1.4%	2	2.6	0.78×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$95.00	1.5%	5	3.8	1.30×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,941	$83.03	1.4%	4	4.4	0.92×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$72.29	1.4%	6	5.0	1.20×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 2,500	$70.32	1.4%	6	5.1	1.17×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 1,887	$53.00	1.4%	4	6.8	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,389	$38.92	1.4%	10	9.2	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,389	$38.90	1.4%	7	9.2	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,075	$30.21	1.4%	10	11.9	0.84×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 917	$25.64	1.4%	11	14.0	0.79×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$23.76	1.4%	9	15.1	0.60×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 391	$19.54	2.6%	39	32.8	1.19×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 294	$14.72	2.6%	45	43.5	1.03×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 292	$14.56	2.6%	46	43.9	1.05×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 274	$13.70	2.6%	51	46.7	1.09×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 270	$13.50	2.6%	46	47.4	0.97×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 205	$10.26	2.6%	38	62.3	0.61×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 199	$9.97	2.6%	69	64.3	1.07×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 195	$9.72	2.6%	46	65.8	0.70×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 159	$7.98	2.6%	85	80.3	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 154	$7.71	2.6%	82	83.1	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 144	$7.22	2.6%	77	88.7	0.87×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 137	$6.85	2.6%	84	93.4	0.90×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 134	$6.69	2.6%	104	95.6	1.09×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 125	$6.26	2.6%	90	102.3	0.88×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$6.23	2.6%	101	102.8	0.98×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 124	$6.20	2.6%	117	103.2	1.13×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 43	$4.27	5.1%	271	299.8	0.90×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$3.31	5.1%	415	386.7	1.07×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 31	$3.09	5.1%	407	414.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 23	$2.32	5.1%	548	551.7	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$2.27	5.1%	602	563.9	1.07×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 395	$2.13	0.3%	33	32.4	1.02×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 391	$2.09	0.3%	23	32.8	0.70×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 376	$2.01	0.3%	29	34.1	0.85×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 301	$1.61	0.3%	37	42.5	0.87×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 292	$1.56	0.3%	36	43.8	0.82×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 285	$1.52	0.3%	44	44.9	0.98×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 272	$1.45	0.3%	55	47.1	1.17×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 266	$1.42	0.3%	39	48.1	0.81×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 258	$1.38	0.3%	52	49.5	1.05×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 238	$1.27	0.3%	47	53.8	0.87×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 217	$1.16	0.3%	42	58.9	0.71×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 187	$1.00	0.3%	67	68.4	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 187	$1.00	0.3%	66	68.4	0.97×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 178	$0.95	0.3%	73	71.9	1.01×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 146	$0.78	0.3%	102	87.7	1.16×
Galil AR \| NV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 97	$0.52	0.3%	120	131.5	0.91×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 86	$0.46	0.3%	148	148.6	1.00×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 77	$0.41	0.3%	181	166.7	1.09×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 75	$0.40	0.3%	155	170.9	0.91×
Galil AR \| NV (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 75	$0.40	0.3%	164	170.9	0.96×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 73	$0.39	0.3%	189	175.2	1.08×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 62	$0.33	0.3%	209	207.1	1.01×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 62	$0.33	0.3%	214	207.1	1.03×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 60	$0.32	0.3%	226	213.6	1.06×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 52	$0.28	0.3%	221	244.1	0.91×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 49	$0.26	0.3%	255	262.9	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 49	$0.26	0.3%	289	262.9	1.10×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 43	$0.23	0.3%	289	297.2	0.97×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 43	$0.23	0.3%	303	297.2	1.02×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$0.22	0.3%	330	310.7	1.06×
Galil AR \| NV (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$0.22	0.3%	321	310.7	1.03×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$0.22	0.3%	324	310.7	1.04×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$0.22	0.3%	316	310.7	1.02×
Galil AR \| NV (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$0.22	0.3%	310	310.7	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.21	0.3%	335	325.5	1.03×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 36	$0.19	0.3%	353	359.8	0.98×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 36	$0.19	0.3%	372	359.8	1.03×
Galil AR \| NV (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.18	0.3%	373	379.8	0.98×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 32	$0.17	0.3%	384	402.1	0.96×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.17	0.3%	386	402.1	0.96×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 28	$0.15	0.3%	429	455.7	0.94×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 28	$0.15	0.3%	456	455.7	1.00×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 28	$0.15	0.3%	464	455.7	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 29	$0.15	0.3%	496	445.0	1.11×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568729, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.20$633287.6x2d

AWP | CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert𝙨𝙞𝙪$2.20$633287.6x7d

AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertSutyPudziana skins.army$2.20$238108.3x12h

AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$2.20$238108.3x1d

Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rareNorbi Jumbo skins$2.20$17378.84x3d

AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · redxchochlikx “skins.army”$2.20$14666.43x17h

AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red$2.20$14666.43x4d

AWP | CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red✘Mefion✘シ$2.20$14163.99x16h

AWP | CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red$2.20$14163.99x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | NV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9$2.20$0.520.24x2m

M249 | Spectrogram (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$2.20$0.220.10x2m

MP7 | Astrolabe (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Waginator 45_skins.army$2.20$0.170.08x2m

SSG 08 | Halftone Whorl (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9$2.20$0.150.07x3m

SSG 08 | Halftone Whorl (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9OMEN$2.20$0.150.07x3m

Galil AR | NV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9JOKERSS$2.20$0.520.24x3m

P2000 | Coral Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$2.20$0.220.10x3m

FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialOMEN$2.20$0.320.15x3m

P2000 | Coral Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialJOKERSS$2.20$0.220.10x3m

M249 | Spectrogram (Factory New)weapon · industrial$2.20$0.390.18x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.81%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$2.20	88.81%	80

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.2%red 0.1%pink 0.0%classified 0.2%uncommon 3.7%violet 1.5%industrial 39.9%restricted 1.9%Mythical 1.1%#8847ff 0.8%#4b69ff 4.0%blue 8.6%common 4.6%milspec 5.9%Rare 0.4%#5e98d9 24.8%Uncommon 1.2%light blue 1.3%best hit $633 (287.6x)