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Sport & Field

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$3.30
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $2.93 from 74 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.10%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.82%±8.291,361 openings
7 days
87.59%±3.0210.2K openings
30 days
87.10%±2.7212.6K openings
since tracking started
87.10%±2.7212.6K openings
79.0%88.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,36187.82%±8.29−0.3σodds
7d10.2K87.59%±3.02−0.9σodds
30d12.6K87.10%±2.72−1.3σodds
All12.6K87.10%±2.72−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic1 in 7,692$2661.2%11.60.61×
M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 5,882$2061.2%22.10.93×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 1,515$51.881.2%58.30.60×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 877$30.221.2%1314.40.90×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 752$25.851.2%1116.80.65×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 730$25.101.2%1917.31.10×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 719$24.751.2%1417.60.80×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 704$24.301.2%1117.90.61×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 699$24.101.2%1918.11.05×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 680$23.411.2%1918.61.02×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 680$23.401.2%1918.61.02×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 667$22.901.2%1719.00.90×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 535$18.441.2%2923.61.23×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 18$5.7911.1%695709.40.98×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 13$4.3811.1%909937.80.97×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 11$3.6911.1%1,0911113.20.98×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 10$3.3211.1%1,2261237.20.99×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 31$2.983.3%450406.51.11×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 30$2.873.3%420422.01.00×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 30$2.863.3%462423.51.09×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 30$2.863.3%428423.51.01×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 29$2.823.3%426429.50.99×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 29$2.813.3%434431.01.01×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 29$2.783.3%454435.71.04×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 29$2.773.3%431437.30.99×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 29$2.763.3%455438.81.04×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 28$2.733.3%401443.60.90×
Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 17$1.653.3%736734.11.00×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 14$1.363.3%923890.71.04×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 1,408$1.140.0%89.00.89×
P250 | Small Game (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 980$0.780.0%812.90.62×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 794$0.630.0%1015.90.63×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 719$0.570.0%2117.61.20×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 719$0.570.0%2017.61.14×
Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 543$0.430.0%1923.30.82×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 518$0.410.0%2324.40.94×
P250 | Small Game (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 505$0.400.0%3225.01.28×
P250 | Small Game (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 441$0.350.0%2928.71.01×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 441$0.350.0%3228.71.12×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 417$0.330.0%3430.31.12×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare1 in 403$0.320.0%2931.30.93×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 403$0.320.0%3031.30.96×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 391$0.310.0%2532.40.77×
P250 | Small Game (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 391$0.310.0%2632.40.80×
Nova | Yorkshire (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 391$0.310.0%3332.41.02×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 391$0.310.0%2932.40.90×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 391$0.310.0%3732.41.14×
Nova | Yorkshire (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 391$0.310.0%3532.41.08×
Nova | Yorkshire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 379$0.300.0%3733.41.11×
P250 | Small Game (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 379$0.300.0%2633.40.78×
MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 290$0.230.0%4543.61.03×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 253$0.200.0%6250.11.24×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight1 in 253$0.200.0%4750.10.94×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 240$0.190.0%5952.71.12×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 240$0.190.0%5852.71.10×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 240$0.190.0%4952.70.93×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 240$0.190.0%4052.70.76×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 215$0.170.0%6158.91.04×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 215$0.170.0%6258.91.05×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 215$0.170.0%6958.91.17×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 215$0.170.0%4758.90.80×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 215$0.170.0%5258.90.88×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 189$0.150.0%6866.91.02×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 189$0.150.0%6566.90.97×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 164$0.130.0%8877.11.14×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 164$0.130.0%7377.10.95×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 126$0.100.0%117100.21.17×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 126$0.100.0%98100.20.98×
MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 101$0.080.0%121125.30.97×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 101$0.080.0%117125.30.93×
MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 101$0.080.0%141125.31.13×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 88$0.070.0%128143.20.89×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 88$0.070.0%126143.20.88×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 72$0.060.0%183174.71.05×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568733, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicPikaJ3w$3.30$26680.62x
M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic$3.30$20662.32x
M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic$3.30$20662.32x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$3.30$2.870.87x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$3.30$3.321.01x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetdiabel skins.army$3.30$3.321.01x
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · bluekacperskins.army$3.30$1.360.41x
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalKefir2112 | skins.army SKINS$3.30$3.691.12x
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9$3.30$0.170.05x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$3.30$2.860.87x
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restrictedjanek muzykant$3.30$5.791.75x
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$3.30$3.691.12x
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$3.30$2.770.84x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$3.3088.90%74
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.3%epic 0.0%rare 1.0%classified 0.3%restricted 12.5%violet 37.7%Mythical 8.8%#8847ff 3.4%uncommon 3.4%#4b69ff 6.4%blue 7.4%milspec 2.1%industrial 12.2%Uncommon 1.2%Rare 0.5%blueLight 0.4%#5e98d9 1.3%light blue 1.1%best hit $266 (80.62x)