Train

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$1.70

Advertised RTP

88.76%

EV $1.51 from 74 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.31%

24.4K openings, odds method

Variance

19.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.41%±15.303,158 openings

7 days

85.81%±6.2019.2K openings

30 days

85.31%±5.5124.4K openings

since tracking started

85.31%±5.5124.4K openings

64.5%80.5%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,158	80.41%±15.3	−1.1σ	odds
7d	19.2K	85.81%±6.20	−0.9σ	odds
30d	24.4K	85.31%±5.51	−1.2σ	odds
All	24.4K	85.31%±5.51	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 12,500	$514	2.7%	0	2.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$178	2.6%	3	5.4	0.56×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 4,000	$157	2.6%	7	6.1	1.15×
AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 3,571	$140	2.6%	6	6.8	0.88×
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,562	$62.51	2.7%	16	15.6	1.02×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,389	$55.52	2.6%	18	17.6	1.02×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 990	$39.72	2.7%	24	24.7	0.97×
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 990	$39.69	2.7%	24	24.7	0.97×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 862	$34.35	2.6%	34	28.3	1.20×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 741	$29.56	2.6%	30	33.0	0.91×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 279	$16.30	3.9%	93	87.5	1.06×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 248	$14.48	3.9%	114	98.5	1.16×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 230	$13.40	3.9%	115	106.3	1.08×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 211	$12.30	3.9%	98	115.8	0.85×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 198	$11.52	3.9%	107	123.6	0.87×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 165	$9.64	3.9%	140	147.8	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 153	$8.93	3.9%	140	159.6	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 149	$8.68	3.9%	160	164.2	0.97×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 115	$6.69	3.9%	241	213.1	1.13×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$6.25	3.9%	228	228.0	1.00×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 82	$4.81	3.9%	310	296.4	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$4.21	3.9%	334	338.7	0.99×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 61	$3.05	3.3%	408	400.8	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 57	$2.84	3.3%	428	430.3	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$2.30	3.3%	512	531.2	0.96×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 43	$2.13	3.3%	550	573.5	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.99	3.3%	648	614.1	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$1.79	3.3%	665	682.5	0.97×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 699	$1.68	0.2%	24	34.9	0.69×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 637	$1.52	0.2%	41	38.4	1.07×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 625	$1.49	0.2%	38	39.1	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 599	$1.43	0.2%	41	40.8	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 543	$1.30	0.2%	43	45.0	0.96×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 541	$1.29	0.2%	33	45.2	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 418	$1.00	0.2%	53	58.4	0.91×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 385	$0.92	0.2%	74	63.5	1.16×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 385	$0.92	0.2%	56	63.5	0.88×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 334	$0.80	0.2%	68	73.1	0.93×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 313	$0.75	0.2%	74	78.0	0.95×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 226	$0.54	0.2%	92	108.3	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 134	$0.32	0.2%	167	182.5	0.91×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 109	$0.26	0.2%	229	224.8	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 96	$0.23	0.2%	237	254.1	0.93×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 96	$0.23	0.2%	240	254.1	0.94×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.22	0.2%	273	265.6	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 88	$0.21	0.2%	297	278.3	1.07×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 88	$0.21	0.2%	280	278.3	1.01×
Galil AR \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 88	$0.21	0.2%	294	278.3	1.06×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 84	$0.20	0.2%	283	292.0	0.97×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 79	$0.19	0.2%	323	307.4	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 79	$0.19	0.2%	299	307.4	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 79	$0.19	0.2%	317	307.4	1.03×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 79	$0.19	0.2%	298	307.4	0.97×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 75	$0.18	0.2%	357	324.5	1.10×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 71	$0.17	0.2%	327	343.6	0.95×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 71	$0.17	0.2%	342	343.6	1.00×
P250 \| Constructivist (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 71	$0.17	0.2%	333	343.6	0.97×
Nova \| Rain Station (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 71	$0.17	0.2%	324	343.6	0.94×
Galil AR \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 59	$0.14	0.2%	411	417.4	0.98×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 54	$0.13	0.2%	451	449.4	1.00×
Galil AR \| Green Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.10	0.2%	578	584.3	0.99×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$0.08	0.2%	704	730.4	0.96×
Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 33	$0.08	0.2%	738	730.4	1.01×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 29	$0.07	0.2%	822	834.7	0.98×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 29	$0.07	0.2%	824	834.7	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 29	$0.07	0.2%	860	834.7	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 29	$0.07	0.2%	887	834.7	1.06×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.06	0.2%	984	973.8	1.01×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.06	0.2%	972	973.8	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.06	0.2%	1,020	973.8	1.05×
Nova \| Rain Station (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.06	0.2%	956	973.8	0.98×
P250 \| Constructivist (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.06	0.2%	962	973.8	0.99×
P250 \| Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.06	0.2%	974	973.8	1.00×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 26	$0.06	0.2%	983	941.8	1.04×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1568746, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · restrictedUsterka$1.70$178105.0x2d

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · restrictedn$1.70$178105.0x5d

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.70$178105.0x8d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare$1.70$15792.60x1d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rarekarpiuu$1.70$15792.60x3d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare$1.70$15792.60x4d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rarenitro1521$1.70$15792.60x5d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rarezirael$1.70$15792.60x5d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare$1.70$15792.60x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9Ar_Tix skins.army$1.70$0.140.08x4m

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialStone$1.70$0.060.04x4m

M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rareTarAntula$1.70$16.309.59x4m

P250 | Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9DeKKy$1.70$0.060.04x4m

P250 | Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9$1.70$0.060.04x4m

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9infinihedge$1.70$0.070.04x4m

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialMarcel$1.70$0.060.04x4m

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueHaram Masari$1.70$0.190.11x4m

FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffkacperskins.army$1.70$3.051.79x5m

CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9Nadinspektor Maria Lenard$1.70$0.170.10x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$1.70	88.76%	74

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.1%restricted 0.0%rare 0.5%Ancient 0.1%Legendary 0.7%pink 0.1%uncommon 3.3%#8847ff 4.4%Classified 0.5%classified 0.9%Mythical 3.7%#4b69ff 13.2%Rare 2.3%violet 3.2%industrial 16.2%blue 3.8%milspec 1.6%#5e98d9 45.3%best hit $178 (105.0x)