Fly
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.50
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $3.11 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.48%
15.3K openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1585438, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.90% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 19.9%covert 0.8%sunny 0.0%red 0.1%pink 5.6%extraordinary 0.1%classified 2.9%#d32ce6 1.2%Legendary 5.6%Classified 3.0%#4b69ff 36.1%#d32ee6 3.8%violet 20.9%best hit $214 (61.27x)