Mateuszyscie
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
88.83%
EV $8.88 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.64%
4,241 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,259 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1585442, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.83% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.8%covert 3.7%#eb4b4b 0.5%classified 22.6%pink 3.7%uncommon 5.7%Rare 3.6%mil spec 5.5%#4b69ff 54.0%best hit $1,277 (127.7x)