AK-47
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.94%
EV $4.45 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.98%
33.9K openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/16, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $5.00 | 88.94% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.74% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.4%covert 0.8%red 0.0%mil spec 6.2%violet 3.2%industrial 9.8%restricted 8.7%rare 7.2%Uncommon 34.1%Mythical 8.8%Rare 10.7%blue 7.1%best hit $1,070 (214.0x)