Knifado

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$15.50

Advertised RTP

88.88%

EV $13.78 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.66%

4,823 openings, odds method

Variance

6.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.96%±17.85794 openings

7 days

84.31%±7.794,167 openings

30 days

86.66%±7.244,823 openings

since tracking started

86.66%±7.244,823 openings

76.0%95.3%114.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	794	95.96%±17.9	+0.8σ	odds
7d	4,167	84.31%±7.79	−1.1σ	odds
30d	4,823	86.66%±7.24	−0.6σ	odds
All	4,823	86.66%±7.24	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,830 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,545	$1,369	2.2%	1	1.1	0.94×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$526	2.2%	3	2.8	1.09×
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,639	$493	2.2%	1	2.9	0.34×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 709	$212	2.2%	9	6.8	1.32×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 685	$205	2.2%	6	7.1	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 680	$204	2.2%	13	7.1	1.83×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 629	$189	2.2%	7	7.7	0.91×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 595	$179	2.2%	9	8.1	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 503	$151	2.2%	11	9.6	1.14×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 239	$149	4.5%	28	20.2	1.38×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 223	$139	4.5%	21	21.7	0.97×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 172	$107	4.5%	19	28.1	0.68×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$98.92	4.5%	21	30.4	0.69×
AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 151	$93.96	4.5%	28	32.1	0.87×
AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$87.40	4.5%	40	34.4	1.16×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$87.14	4.5%	30	34.6	0.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 133	$83.08	4.5%	32	36.3	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$80.03	4.5%	37	37.6	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 106	$66.22	4.5%	43	45.5	0.95×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 72	$44.83	4.5%	59	67.2	0.88×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 70	$43.91	4.5%	74	68.6	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$33.74	4.5%	79	89.3	0.89×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 28	$17.37	4.5%	155	173.4	0.89×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$4.90	2.4%	320	327.8	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$3.89	2.4%	396	412.9	0.96×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$3.69	2.4%	457	435.2	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$3.37	2.4%	494	476.5	1.04×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$2.60	1.8%	481	469.1	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	11.6%	$2.17	1.8%	606	562.0	1.08×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$1.80	1.8%	653	677.6	0.96×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	14.4%	$1.79	1.9%	697	696.5	1.00×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/160, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$15.50$1,36988.35x7d

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covertHyper$15.50$52633.92x1d

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$15.50$52633.92x4d

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$15.50$52633.92x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$15.50$3.370.22x9m

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedfryttek_skins.army$15.50$1.790.12x9m

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBulbozaur_Borys skins.army$15.50$1.790.12x10m

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New)weapon · #4b69fffryttek_skins.army$15.50$3.890.25x10m

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKubu$$15.50$80.035.16x15m

★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700fryttek_skins.army$15.50$43.912.83x15m

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6JAMAJ$15.50$17.371.12x18m

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedfryttek_skins.army$15.50$1.790.12x18m

CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$15.50$4.900.32x23m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$15.50	88.88%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.4%#ffd700 4.1%Immortal 0.1%restricted 39.0%#8847ff 10.4%mil spec 19.1%classified 2.6%#d32ee6 3.6%#4b69ff 8.5%Mythical 9.0%best hit $1,369 (88.35x)