Power Balance

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
88.75%
EV $17.75 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 935$4462.7%00.0—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 763$3642.7%00.0—
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 581$2762.7%00.0—
★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 578$2762.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 457$2172.7%00.0—
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 368$1752.7%00.0—
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 311$1482.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 243$1162.7%00.0—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 226$1082.7%00.0—
P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 219$1042.7%00.0—
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 213$1022.7%00.0—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 209$99.392.7%00.0—
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 173$82.262.7%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd7001 in 138$65.822.7%00.0—
XM1014 | Red Leather (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 129$61.252.7%00.0—
P250 | Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 125$59.412.7%00.0—
USP-S | Business Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 65$45.693.9%00.0—
Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 64$44.523.9%00.0—
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 63$43.853.9%00.0—
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 60$41.723.9%00.0—
Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 54$37.523.9%00.0—
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 43$30.393.9%00.0—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 42$29.213.9%00.0—
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 40$27.973.9%00.0—
PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 39$27.443.9%00.0—
P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33$23.063.9%00.0—
AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 12$9.434.5%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted18.4%$4.354.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff21.7%$3.384.1%00.0—
P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec23.9%$3.334.5%00.0—
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635171, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$20.0088.75%30
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.3%classified 8.7%extraordinary 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.4%mil spec 28.5%#ffd700 0.7%blue 1.6%restricted 22.4%industrial 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.6%#4b69ff 8.5%#8847ff 21.7%