MOUZ
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.50
Advertised RTP
88.84%
EV $3.11 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.46%
15.3K openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635174, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.84% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 2.6%covert 0.7%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%Classified 0.1%pink 6.4%restricted 5.3%classified 8.8%violet 0.9%blue 1.0%#4b69ff 45.3%#8847ff 2.8%Legendary 1.4%#d32ee6 5.2%Restricted 6.7%mil spec 5.2%milspec 7.3%best hit $300 (85.68x)