LOVERBOY

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$9.20

Advertised RTP

89.09%

EV $8.20 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,056	0.5%	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$387	0.5%	—
USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$257	0.5%	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$133	0.5%	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$128	0.5%	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 231	$104	5.5%	—
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 157	$70.76	5.5%	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 155	$69.69	5.5%	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 148	$66.79	5.5%	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 131	$59.05	5.5%	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 131	$58.85	5.5%	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$34.67	5.5%	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$22.50	5.5%	—
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$14.37	4.6%	—
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$12.06	4.6%	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$10.72	4.6%	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$10.25	4.6%	—
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.51	3.7%	—
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$7.28	4.6%	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 19	$7.17	4.6%	—
P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$5.37	3.7%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$4.67	3.7%	—
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$3.97	3.7%	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$3.60	3.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	10.4%	$2.88	3.7%	—
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	27.0%	$1.18	3.9%	—

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635175, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$9.20	89.09%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.3%classified 10.5%Legendary 0.7%restricted 40.5%mil spec 5.2%#d32ee6 5.3%#8847ff 7.6%milspec 27.0%