Tactical Choice

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$0.25

Advertised RTP

88.93%

EV $0.22 from 111 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.94%

446K openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.33%±1.3255.8K openings

7 days

88.83%±0.51372K openings

30 days

88.94%±0.46446K openings

since tracking started

88.94%±0.46446K openings

86.5%88.5%90.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	55.8K	88.33%±1.32	−0.9σ	odds
7d	372K	88.83%±0.51	−0.3σ	odds
30d	446K	88.94%±0.46	+0.2σ	odds
All	446K	88.94%±0.46	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values111 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 448K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$12.52	0.3%	15	22.4	0.67×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$12.40	0.3%	10	22.4	0.45×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$11.48	0.3%	14	22.4	0.62×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$8.53	0.3%	20	31.4	0.64×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$6.38	0.3%	25	44.8	0.56×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$5.60	0.3%	46	49.3	0.93×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,333	$5.37	0.3%	34	53.8	0.63×
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 8,333	$5.03	0.3%	32	53.8	0.60×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,564	$4.02	0.7%	184	174.8	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,500	$3.96	0.7%	50	179.2	0.28×
Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$3.93	0.7%	143	179.2	0.80×
G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,439	$3.86	0.7%	143	183.7	0.78×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,326	$3.67	0.7%	146	192.7	0.76×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$3.60	0.7%	164	197.2	0.83×
P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,273	$3.59	0.7%	188	197.2	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,852	$2.93	0.7%	184	242.0	0.76×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,724	$2.71	0.7%	173	259.9	0.67×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,613	$2.55	0.7%	240	277.8	0.86×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,408	$2.20	0.7%	237	318.1	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,370	$2.16	0.7%	286	327.1	0.87×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,333	$2.09	0.7%	266	336.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,316	$2.08	0.7%	333	340.5	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$2.06	0.7%	279	340.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,266	$1.99	0.7%	339	354.0	0.96×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,266	$1.99	0.7%	241	354.0	0.68×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,205	$1.90	0.7%	271	371.9	0.73×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,190	$1.87	0.7%	362	376.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,136	$1.79	0.7%	317	394.3	0.80×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,099	$1.72	0.7%	375	407.8	0.92×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,053	$1.66	0.7%	409	425.7	0.96×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 980	$1.54	0.7%	445	457.1	0.97×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$1.42	0.7%	439	497.4	0.88×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 820	$1.29	0.7%	427	546.7	0.78×
Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 820	$1.29	0.7%	402	546.7	0.74×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 763	$1.20	0.7%	468	587.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 680	$1.07	0.7%	1,001	658.7	1.52×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 353	$0.95	1.2%	1,516	1268.1	1.20×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 342	$0.91	1.2%	736	1308.4	0.56×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 339	$0.90	1.2%	1,209	1321.9	0.91×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 339	$0.90	1.2%	811	1321.9	0.61×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 313	$0.83	1.2%	1,248	1433.9	0.87×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 305	$0.81	1.2%	1,237	1469.7	0.84×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 290	$0.77	1.2%	785	1545.9	0.51×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 287	$0.76	1.2%	1,224	1563.8	0.78×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 282	$0.75	1.2%	1,621	1586.2	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 264	$0.70	1.2%	2,080	1698.3	1.22×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 264	$0.70	1.2%	1,265	1698.3	0.74×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 260	$0.69	1.2%	1,530	1725.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 256	$0.68	1.2%	1,357	1747.6	0.78×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 245	$0.65	1.2%	1,418	1828.2	0.78×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 218	$0.58	1.2%	1,361	2052.3	0.66×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 215	$0.57	1.2%	1,992	2088.1	0.95×
Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 203	$0.54	1.2%	1,907	2204.6	0.87×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 203	$0.54	1.2%	1,821	2204.6	0.83×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$0.53	1.2%	1,819	2244.9	0.81×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Mischief (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 177	$0.47	1.2%	2,022	2531.7	0.80×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 177	$0.47	1.2%	1,037	2531.7	0.41×
P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 169	$0.45	1.2%	2,279	2643.7	0.86×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 166	$0.44	1.2%	2,275	2702.0	0.84×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 162	$0.43	1.2%	2,255	2764.7	0.82×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 154	$0.41	1.2%	2,558	2903.6	0.88×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 151	$0.40	1.2%	2,494	2975.3	0.84×
USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 147	$0.39	1.2%	3,547	3051.5	1.16×
M249 \| Hypnosis (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 132	$0.35	1.2%	2,576	3401.0	0.76×
P2000 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 128	$0.34	1.2%	2,452	3499.6	0.70×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 128	$0.34	1.2%	3,288	3499.6	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 124	$0.33	1.2%	2,738	3607.1	0.76×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 124	$0.33	1.2%	1,987	3607.1	0.55×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 124	$0.33	1.2%	3,322	3607.1	0.92×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 120	$0.32	1.2%	2,676	3719.1	0.72×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 137	$0.28	0.9%	1,930	3266.6	0.59×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 138	$0.28	0.9%	2,705	3239.7	0.83×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 129	$0.26	0.9%	3,468	3486.1	0.99×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 109	$0.22	0.9%	4,667	4122.4	1.13×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$0.22	0.9%	4,397	4122.4	1.07×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 104	$0.21	0.9%	5,690	4319.6	1.32×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 99	$0.20	0.9%	2,690	4534.7	0.59×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 94	$0.19	0.9%	5,605	4772.2	1.17×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 94	$0.19	0.9%	5,019	4772.2	1.05×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 94	$0.19	0.9%	3,654	4772.2	0.77×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 94	$0.19	0.9%	2,792	4772.2	0.59×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 89	$0.18	0.9%	5,806	5036.5	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 89	$0.18	0.9%	5,856	5036.5	1.16×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 89	$0.18	0.9%	5,664	5036.5	1.12×
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 84	$0.17	0.9%	5,684	5336.8	1.07×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 74	$0.15	0.9%	6,758	6044.7	1.12×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 69	$0.14	0.9%	12,647	6479.4	1.95×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.14	0.9%	6,833	6479.4	1.05×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 69	$0.14	0.9%	5,808	6479.4	0.90×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 64	$0.13	0.9%	5,977	6976.8	0.86×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 54	$0.11	0.9%	8,348	8244.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.9%	14,767	9069.3	1.63×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.9%	11,129	9069.3	1.23×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.9%	8,614	9069.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.9%	7,448	9069.3	0.82×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.9%	5,012	9069.3	0.55×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.9%	3,780	9069.3	0.42×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 44	$0.09	0.9%	13,589	10077.5	1.35×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 44	$0.09	0.9%	13,483	10077.5	1.34×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 44	$0.09	0.9%	5,231	10077.5	0.52×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 44	$0.09	0.9%	4,223	10077.5	0.42×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 40	$0.08	0.9%	17,607	11336.7	1.55×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$0.08	0.9%	8,617	11336.7	0.76×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 35	$0.07	0.9%	13,129	12954.3	1.01×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 30	$0.06	0.9%	33,652	15114.1	2.23×
Negev \| Bulkhead (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 30	$0.06	0.9%	21,701	15114.1	1.44×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 30	$0.06	0.9%	18,692	15114.1	1.24×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 30	$0.06	0.9%	10,327	15114.1	0.68×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 30	$0.06	0.9%	6,175	15114.1	0.41×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 20	$0.04	0.9%	36,178	22727.1	1.59×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 20	$0.04	0.9%	9,587	22727.1	0.42×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635254, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.25$13.9455.76x2d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.25$13.9455.76x3d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.25$13.9455.76x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmaly przyjazny chlopiec antoni$0.25$13.9455.76x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTaiTeZqCASE.GIFT$0.25$13.9455.76x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.25$13.9455.76x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedДо біса українськ$0.25$13.9455.76x6d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTHE PUSSY DESTROYER$0.25$13.9455.76x7d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJaXyZoo skins.army$0.25$13.9455.76x8d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedwojtus LUNARP.PL - Skins.Army$0.25$12.5250.08x1h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$0.25$0.090.36x11s

P2000 | Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffDżejkob$0.25$0.341.36x11s

Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9$0.25$0.040.16x43s

StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff76561199199518794$0.25$0.090.36x43s

StatTrak™ MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$0.25$0.190.76x45s

Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common$0.25$0.060.24x45s

Negev | Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9krystino skins.army$0.25$0.040.16x45s

USP-S | 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$0.25$0.391.56x45s

Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9$0.25$0.040.16x45s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 21:11 UTC	$0.25	88.93%	111
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$0.25	88.89%	111

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 1.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%industrial 0.0%mil spec 2.0%Rare 0.5%pink 0.0%Mythical 0.8%milspec 4.3%#4b69ff 40.6%#8847ff 1.6%violet 2.0%#5e98d9 27.5%blue 2.9%light blue 0.8%#87c7ff 9.6%Uncommon 2.9%common 3.4%best hit $13.94 (55.76x)