Oriental Treasure

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$0.60

Advertised RTP

88.76%

EV $0.53 from 76 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.22%

124K openings, odds method

Variance

3.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.41%±3.0416.2K openings

7 days

88.22%±1.19105K openings

30 days

88.22%±1.10124K openings

since tracking started

88.22%±1.10124K openings

83.5%87.3%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16.2K	87.41%±3.04	−0.9σ	odds
7d	105K	88.22%±1.19	−0.9σ	odds
30d	124K	88.22%±1.10	−1.0σ	odds
All	124K	88.22%±1.10	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values76 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 124K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$94.62	0.4%	2	2.5	0.80×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$43.19	0.3%	4	5.0	0.80×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$35.34	0.3%	7	6.2	1.13×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$34.41	0.3%	7	6.2	1.13×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$34.11	0.3%	3	6.2	0.48×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$33.84	0.3%	3	6.2	0.48×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 20,000	$32.79	0.3%	1	6.2	0.16×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20,000	$31.38	0.3%	5	6.2	0.80×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$26.07	0.3%	2	7.5	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$25.81	0.3%	10	7.5	1.34×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$14.57	0.3%	12	13.7	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$14.35	0.3%	21	13.7	1.54×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$13.41	0.3%	15	14.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,333	$12.96	0.3%	11	14.9	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 4,762	$7.74	0.3%	25	26.1	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$7.49	0.3%	28	27.4	1.02×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$6.95	0.3%	30	28.6	1.05×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,846	$6.24	0.3%	23	32.3	0.71×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 413	$5.85	2.7%	317	300.9	1.05×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 398	$5.64	2.7%	314	312.1	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 351	$4.97	2.7%	344	354.4	0.97×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 348	$4.93	2.7%	382	356.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 339	$4.81	2.7%	360	366.8	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 290	$4.11	2.7%	411	429.0	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 275	$3.89	2.7%	473	452.6	1.04×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 152	$2.15	2.7%	809	819.5	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 138	$1.95	2.7%	931	902.8	1.03×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 128	$1.81	2.7%	1,049	973.7	1.08×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 121	$1.71	2.7%	1,039	1029.6	1.01×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 119	$1.68	2.7%	1,074	1048.3	1.02×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 117	$1.66	2.7%	991	1060.7	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 109	$1.55	2.7%	1,127	1136.6	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$1.48	2.7%	1,129	1190.0	0.95×
XM1014 \| Watchdog (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 102	$1.45	2.7%	1,196	1214.9	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 102	$1.44	2.7%	1,250	1223.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 93	$1.32	2.7%	1,263	1334.3	0.95×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 78	$1.04	2.5%	1,595	1594.2	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 74	$0.99	2.5%	1,675	1675.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 71	$0.95	2.5%	1,742	1744.6	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 68	$0.91	2.5%	1,794	1821.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 66	$0.88	2.5%	1,891	1883.9	1.00×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.81	2.5%	2,059	2046.8	1.01×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.78	2.5%	2,141	2125.1	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$0.77	2.5%	2,227	2153.7	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.68	2.5%	2,449	2438.5	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 140	$0.58	0.8%	876	885.4	0.99×
P250 \| Re.built (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 128	$0.53	0.8%	934	968.7	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 111	$0.46	0.8%	1,128	1116.7	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 111	$0.46	0.8%	1,047	1116.7	0.94×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 107	$0.44	0.8%	1,234	1166.4	1.06×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 97	$0.40	0.8%	1,263	1283.3	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.38	0.8%	1,300	1351.7	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 90	$0.37	0.8%	1,453	1387.7	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 85	$0.35	0.8%	1,449	1467.3	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$0.35	0.8%	1,449	1467.3	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 73	$0.30	0.8%	1,608	1711.1	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 70	$0.29	0.8%	1,805	1770.7	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 63	$0.26	0.8%	1,977	1974.7	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 58	$0.24	0.8%	2,122	2138.8	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 56	$0.23	0.8%	2,242	2232.1	1.00×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 53	$0.22	0.8%	2,407	2334.0	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 51	$0.21	0.8%	2,468	2444.7	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 48	$0.20	0.8%	2,594	2566.6	1.01×
P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 48	$0.20	0.8%	2,611	2566.6	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 48	$0.20	0.8%	2,614	2566.6	1.02×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 44	$0.18	0.8%	2,873	2852.6	1.01×
P250 \| Re.built (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 41	$0.17	0.8%	3,045	3020.5	1.01×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 41	$0.17	0.8%	2,989	3020.5	0.99×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 41	$0.17	0.8%	3,110	3020.5	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$0.16	0.8%	3,173	3209.5	0.99×
P250 \| Re.built (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$0.14	0.8%	3,585	3667.1	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.10	0.8%	5,196	5134.4	1.01×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 19	$0.08	0.8%	6,388	6417.7	1.00×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 15	$0.06	0.8%	8,510	8557.8	0.99×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 15	$0.06	0.8%	8,578	8557.8	1.00×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 12	$0.05	0.8%	10,081	10153.2	0.99×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635257, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertm4niusmeister$0.60$94.62157.7x4d

AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$0.60$94.62157.7x6d

MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.60$43.1971.98x19h

MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.60$43.1971.98x3d

MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFLORO skins.army$0.60$43.1971.98x5d

MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFIRE_FLICKskins.army$0.60$43.1971.98x6d

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covertkyousuke$0.60$35.3458.90x1d

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDzinoldskins.army$0.60$35.3458.90x2d

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.60$35.3458.90x4d

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.60$35.3458.90x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$0.60$0.170.28x6s

P250 | Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9$0.60$0.050.08x6s

Desert Eagle | Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight$0.60$0.290.48x6s

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonMnichZszaolin$0.60$0.240.40x6s

AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$0.60$1.682.80x19s

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecByczek$0.60$0.100.17x19s

SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.60$0.911.52x19s

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueByczek$0.60$0.200.33x19s

P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$0.60$0.200.33x22s

Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$0.60$1.953.25x22s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$0.60	88.76%	76

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.9%#eb4b4b 0.0%Ancient 0.0%pink 0.3%Legendary 0.3%#d32ee6 0.3%mil spec 4.4%Rare 2.0%#8847ff 3.0%blue 8.5%blueLight 4.4%Mythical 1.0%violet 2.8%milspec 19.1%#4b69ff 19.2%Uncommon 0.7%common 1.7%#5e98d9 31.2%best hit $94.62 (157.7x)