Ancient Guardian

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$0.70

Advertised RTP

88.99%

EV $0.62 from 72 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.96%

108K openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.44%±3.1214.1K openings

7 days

89.27%±1.2293K openings

30 days

88.96%±1.13108K openings

since tracking started

88.96%±1.13108K openings

83.5%87.3%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.1K	87.44%±3.12	−1.0σ	odds
7d	93K	89.27%±1.22	+0.4σ	odds
30d	108K	88.96%±1.13	−0.0σ	odds
All	108K	88.96%±1.13	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 50,000	$95.52	0.3%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50,000	$68.48	0.2%	1	2.2	0.46×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$66.75	0.2%	1	2.2	0.46×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$45.32	0.2%	4	3.3	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25,000	$44.14	0.3%	7	4.3	1.61×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25,000	$39.11	0.3%	7	4.3	1.61×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$22.84	0.3%	4	7.6	0.53×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$21.26	0.2%	11	7.6	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 12,500	$19.75	0.3%	12	8.7	1.38×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 11,111	$17.66	0.3%	9	9.8	0.92×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$14.30	0.3%	15	11.9	1.26×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$14.04	0.2%	12	11.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$13.94	0.2%	10	11.9	0.84×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$13.61	0.2%	16	11.9	1.34×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$13.59	0.2%	9	11.9	0.75×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$12.44	0.3%	13	14.1	0.92×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 7,143	$11.10	0.2%	14	15.2	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 5,556	$8.87	0.3%	15	19.5	0.77×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 602	$6.83	1.8%	155	180.2	0.86×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 485	$5.50	1.8%	248	223.7	1.11×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 457	$5.15	1.8%	237	237.8	1.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 450	$5.10	1.8%	240	241.0	1.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 450	$5.09	1.8%	231	241.0	0.96×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 448	$5.07	1.8%	245	242.1	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 441	$4.98	1.8%	239	246.4	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 422	$4.76	1.8%	273	257.3	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 392	$4.44	1.8%	282	276.8	1.02×
FAMAS \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 380	$4.30	1.8%	262	285.5	0.92×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 368	$4.15	1.8%	300	295.3	1.02×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 348	$3.94	1.8%	351	311.6	1.13×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 344	$3.88	1.8%	325	315.9	1.03×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 339	$3.83	1.8%	310	320.3	0.97×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 298	$3.36	1.8%	349	364.8	0.96×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 294	$3.32	1.8%	413	369.1	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 292	$3.31	1.8%	337	371.3	0.91×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 288	$3.26	1.8%	372	376.7	0.99×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 252	$2.85	1.8%	421	431.0	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 249	$2.82	1.8%	453	435.4	1.04×
FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 249	$2.82	1.8%	412	435.4	0.95×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 224	$2.53	1.8%	471	485.3	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 188	$2.13	1.8%	585	576.5	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$1.39	4.8%	2,385	2329.9	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$1.16	4.8%	2,795	2792.4	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$1.08	4.8%	3,062	2998.6	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$1.00	4.8%	3,187	3238.6	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$0.99	4.8%	3,192	3271.2	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$0.77	4.8%	4,304	4205.9	1.02×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$0.65	1.0%	1,084	1042.3	1.04×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 101	$0.63	1.0%	1,067	1074.8	0.99×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 101	$0.63	1.0%	1,086	1074.8	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 87	$0.54	1.0%	1,289	1255.0	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$0.51	1.0%	1,323	1328.9	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 72	$0.45	1.0%	1,441	1505.8	0.96×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 56	$0.35	1.0%	1,907	1935.8	0.99×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 56	$0.35	1.0%	1,876	1935.8	0.97×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$0.31	1.0%	2,252	2185.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$0.30	1.0%	2,205	2258.2	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$0.29	1.0%	2,272	2336.4	0.97×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$0.28	1.0%	2,390	2420.0	0.99×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 35	$0.22	1.0%	3,145	3079.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$0.21	1.0%	3,230	3225.6	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$0.19	1.0%	3,513	3565.4	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 30	$0.19	1.0%	3,625	3565.4	1.02×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 27	$0.17	1.0%	4,056	3985.5	1.02×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$0.15	1.0%	4,464	4516.4	0.99×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$0.14	1.0%	4,775	4838.9	0.99×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 22	$0.14	1.0%	4,964	4838.9	1.03×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 21	$0.13	1.0%	5,115	5211.3	0.98×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 21	$0.13	1.0%	5,198	5211.3	1.00×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 18	$0.11	1.0%	6,120	6110.2	1.00×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$0.10	1.0%	6,760	6774.6	1.00×
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$0.10	1.0%	6,814	6774.6	1.01×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635258, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifehygccbbhgf$0.70$95.52136.5x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$0.70$68.4897.83x5d

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.70$66.7595.36x6d

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classifiedskins.army$0.70$45.3264.74x12h

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified$0.70$45.3264.74x4d

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified♥ᴄᴇɢʟᴀ♥ skins.army$0.70$45.3264.74x5d

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified$0.70$45.3264.74x6d

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedszvm3k skins.army$0.70$44.1463.06x1d

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$0.70$44.1463.06x3d

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedOpel Omega B 3.2 V6$0.70$44.1463.06x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.70$0.100.14x1m

XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.70$0.140.20x1m

XM1014 | Mockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffLucA :D skins.army$0.70$0.100.14x1m

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$0.70$0.350.50x1m

XM1014 | Irezumi (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffSamiec$0.70$0.110.16x1m

XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.70$0.100.14x1m

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · RareSamiec$0.70$0.300.43x1m

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.70$0.350.50x1m

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffSamiec$0.70$0.190.27x1m

XM1014 | Irezumi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$0.70$0.140.20x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$0.70	88.99%	72

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 1.4%restricted 8.3%rare 0.0%pink 1.5%Legendary 0.4%uncommon 0.3%mil spec 6.9%violet 5.5%Mythical 1.4%Rare 4.5%#8847ff 9.2%milspec 4.0%#4b69ff 41.4%blue 11.7%Mil Spec 3.7%best hit $95.52 (136.5x)