Prz3mqu
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$27.00
Advertised RTP
89.04%
EV $24.04 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.09%
1,296 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (61.13% – 87.06%, 1,296 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,296 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635260, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $27.00 | 89.04% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 1.1%epic 0.1%classified 5.3%restricted 11.4%covert 4.2%Ancient 0.3%red 0.5%#4b69ff 1.1%mil spec 7.1%pink 0.6%covert knife 0.8%blue 12.2%#8847ff 3.0%Classified 3.4%industrial 0.7%Mil Spec Grade 0.7%violet 0.8%milspec 1.2%#d32ce6 2.1%rare 4.5%Mythical 7.2%#87c7ff 10.0%Uncommon 21.5%best hit $553 (20.48x)