Cache Control
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $4.44 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.78%
3,998 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,013 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635263, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.88% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.95% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%mil spec 2.7%Immortal 0.0%restricted 8.7%red 0.3%classified 11.6%pink 5.6%Mythical 0.6%Rare 1.0%Legendary 5.1%violet 5.8%industrial 1.8%milspec 20.4%#8847ff 3.1%#4b69ff 32.5%best hit $590 (118.0x)