Glow Fiesta
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$0.30
Advertised RTP
88.95%
EV $0.27 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.54%
209K openings, odds method
Variance
13.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 210K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635292, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.30 | 88.95% | 27 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%Classified 0.0%Mythical 0.0%mil spec 8.5%restricted 3.4%#d32ee6 0.1%#8847ff 1.5%Rare 0.7%violet 1.1%#4b69ff 12.9%#b0c3d9 71.8%best hit $32.38 (107.9x)