Rio Vibes
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
88.87%
EV $0.89 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.94%
31.9K openings, odds method
Variance
13.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.97% – 87.91%, 31,921 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635295, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.87% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%restricted 4.9%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%sunny 0.0%milspec 1.7%classified 2.0%industrial 0.7%mil spec 6.8%#4b69ff 4.4%Uncommon 1.2%Mythical 1.2%violet 9.8%#b0c3d9 67.1%best hit $107 (107.4x)