Genesis

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$4.80

Advertised RTP

88.98%

EV $4.27 from 170 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.19%

5,151 openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.52%±20.37718 openings

7 days

91.40%±8.324,301 openings

30 days

91.19%±7.605,151 openings

since tracking started

91.19%±7.605,151 openings

67.5%88.5%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	718	88.52%±20.4	−0.0σ	odds
7d	4,301	91.40%±8.32	+0.6σ	odds
30d	5,151	91.19%±7.60	+0.6σ	odds
All	5,151	91.19%±7.60	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values170 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,158 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$595	1.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 7,692	$409	1.2%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 4,762	$257	1.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 3,846	$213	1.3%	4	1.3	2.98×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 3,226	$179	1.3%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$179	1.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,041	$112	1.3%	3	2.5	1.19×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$109	1.3%	5	2.6	1.94×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,695	$93.26	1.3%	2	3.0	0.66×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$91.45	1.3%	2	3.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$83.19	1.3%	6	3.4	1.76×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,449	$79.41	1.3%	4	3.6	1.12×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,316	$72.40	1.3%	1	3.9	0.26×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,266	$69.32	1.3%	10	4.1	2.45×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$67.18	1.3%	6	4.2	1.42×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$62.63	1.3%	6	4.5	1.32×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 980	$53.78	1.3%	11	5.3	2.09×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 917	$50.26	1.3%	6	5.6	1.07×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 595	$40.50	1.6%	8	8.7	0.92×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 556	$37.69	1.6%	8	9.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 526	$35.76	1.6%	13	9.8	1.33×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 510	$34.69	1.6%	7	10.1	0.69×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 476	$32.44	1.6%	13	10.8	1.20×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 472	$32.15	1.6%	8	10.9	0.73×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 448	$30.54	1.6%	15	11.5	1.30×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 448	$30.48	1.6%	13	11.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 408	$27.79	1.6%	10	12.6	0.79×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 402	$27.28	1.6%	11	12.8	0.86×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 397	$27.02	1.6%	16	13.0	1.23×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 386	$26.22	1.6%	18	13.4	1.35×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 282	$19.13	1.6%	21	18.3	1.15×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 232	$15.79	1.6%	22	22.2	0.99×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 223	$15.16	1.6%	32	23.2	1.38×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 213	$14.49	1.6%	24	24.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 206	$14.00	1.6%	30	25.1	1.20×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 201	$13.67	1.6%	15	25.6	0.59×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 179	$12.17	1.6%	22	28.8	0.76×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 173	$11.79	1.6%	35	29.8	1.18×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 163	$11.10	1.6%	33	31.6	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 161	$10.93	1.6%	27	32.1	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$10.87	1.6%	35	32.3	1.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 158	$10.73	1.6%	45	32.7	1.38×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 149	$10.13	1.6%	31	34.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$9.37	2.0%	44	45.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$8.80	2.0%	54	48.8	1.11×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 102	$8.46	2.0%	47	50.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Continuum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 99	$8.27	2.0%	58	52.0	1.12×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 97	$8.12	2.0%	51	52.9	0.96×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$7.51	2.0%	55	57.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$6.90	2.0%	54	62.3	0.87×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 78	$6.52	2.0%	56	65.9	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 70	$5.80	2.0%	71	74.1	0.96×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 69	$5.71	2.0%	69	75.3	0.92×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 59	$4.93	2.0%	83	87.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$4.86	2.0%	86	88.5	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 457	$4.69	0.2%	9	11.3	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 431	$4.40	0.2%	7	12.0	0.58×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 420	$4.29	0.2%	9	12.3	0.73×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 395	$4.04	0.2%	18	13.0	1.38×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 389	$3.98	0.2%	14	13.3	1.06×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 383	$3.91	0.2%	14	13.5	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 380	$3.88	0.2%	14	13.6	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 369	$3.77	0.2%	12	14.0	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 366	$3.74	0.2%	21	14.1	1.49×
Nova \| Ocular (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 364	$3.71	0.2%	11	14.2	0.78×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 352	$3.59	0.2%	11	14.6	0.75×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 347	$3.55	0.2%	13	14.9	0.88×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 332	$3.39	0.2%	18	15.5	1.16×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Continuum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 299	$3.06	0.2%	11	17.2	0.64×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Focus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 219	$2.24	0.2%	26	23.5	1.11×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 216	$2.21	0.2%	23	23.8	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 216	$2.21	0.2%	33	23.8	1.38×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 206	$2.10	0.2%	21	25.1	0.84×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Red Wing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 201	$2.05	0.2%	23	25.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Broken Record (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 181	$1.85	0.2%	31	28.5	1.09×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 173	$1.77	0.2%	34	29.8	1.14×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 168	$1.72	0.2%	22	30.6	0.72×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 166	$1.69	0.2%	33	31.2	1.06×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 161	$1.64	0.2%	38	32.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 159	$1.62	0.2%	34	32.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 152	$1.55	0.2%	37	34.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 152	$1.55	0.2%	39	34.0	1.15×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 148	$1.51	0.2%	25	34.9	0.72×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 144	$1.47	0.2%	35	35.8	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$1.43	0.2%	33	36.8	0.90×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$1.39	0.2%	38	37.9	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.38	0.2%	40	38.2	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 131	$1.34	0.2%	47	39.3	1.20×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 128	$1.31	0.2%	41	40.2	1.02×
Nova \| Ocular (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 127	$1.30	0.2%	42	40.5	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 125	$1.28	0.2%	40	41.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 118	$1.21	0.2%	43	43.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 114	$1.16	0.2%	55	45.4	1.21×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$1.13	0.2%	37	46.6	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 110	$1.12	0.2%	46	47.0	0.98×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 99	$1.01	0.2%	57	52.1	1.09×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 87	$0.89	0.2%	66	59.2	1.12×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 81	$0.83	0.2%	66	63.4	1.04×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 78	$0.80	0.2%	54	65.8	0.82×
MP9 \| Broken Record (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 78	$0.80	0.2%	71	65.8	1.08×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 77	$0.79	0.2%	58	66.7	0.87×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 75	$0.77	0.2%	63	68.4	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 412	$0.64	0.0%	11	12.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 415	$0.64	0.0%	17	12.4	1.37×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 415	$0.64	0.0%	9	12.4	0.72×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 415	$0.64	0.0%	15	12.4	1.21×
Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 408	$0.63	0.0%	14	12.6	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 408	$0.63	0.0%	12	12.6	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 376	$0.58	0.0%	18	13.7	1.31×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 370	$0.57	0.0%	15	13.9	1.08×
Nova \| Ocular (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 370	$0.57	0.0%	18	13.9	1.29×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 370	$0.57	0.0%	15	13.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Broken Record (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 364	$0.56	0.0%	14	14.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 364	$0.56	0.0%	17	14.2	1.20×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 357	$0.55	0.0%	18	14.4	1.25×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 351	$0.54	0.0%	11	14.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 344	$0.53	0.0%	11	15.0	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 299	$0.46	0.0%	12	17.3	0.69×
Nova \| Ocular (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 292	$0.45	0.0%	14	17.6	0.79×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 292	$0.45	0.0%	18	17.6	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 279	$0.43	0.0%	13	18.5	0.70×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 201	$0.31	0.0%	25	25.6	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 201	$0.31	0.0%	23	25.6	0.90×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 201	$0.31	0.0%	30	25.6	1.17×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Red Wing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 188	$0.29	0.0%	28	27.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Broken Record (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 182	$0.28	0.0%	36	28.4	1.27×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 182	$0.28	0.0%	21	28.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 182	$0.28	0.0%	28	28.4	0.99×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	40	30.6	1.31×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	36	30.6	1.18×
MP9 \| Broken Record (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	35	30.6	1.14×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	32	30.6	1.05×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	34	30.6	1.11×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	35	30.6	1.14×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	33	30.6	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	28	30.6	0.92×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Broken Record (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	33	30.6	1.08×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	38	30.6	1.24×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 169	$0.26	0.0%	28	30.6	0.92×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 162	$0.25	0.0%	32	31.8	1.01×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 162	$0.25	0.0%	26	31.8	0.82×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 162	$0.25	0.0%	31	31.8	0.98×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 149	$0.23	0.0%	36	34.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Focus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 149	$0.23	0.0%	33	34.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$0.23	0.0%	36	34.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 149	$0.23	0.0%	35	34.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Red Wing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$0.23	0.0%	34	34.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Broken Record (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 136	$0.21	0.0%	35	37.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 136	$0.21	0.0%	30	37.9	0.79×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 130	$0.20	0.0%	38	39.8	0.96×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Focus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 130	$0.20	0.0%	37	39.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 130	$0.20	0.0%	39	39.8	0.98×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 123	$0.19	0.0%	45	41.8	1.08×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 123	$0.19	0.0%	45	41.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 123	$0.19	0.0%	41	41.8	0.98×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 123	$0.19	0.0%	40	41.8	0.96×
MP9 \| Broken Record (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 110	$0.17	0.0%	53	46.7	1.13×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 110	$0.17	0.0%	51	46.7	1.09×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 110	$0.17	0.0%	51	46.7	1.09×
MP9 \| Broken Record (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 110	$0.17	0.0%	51	46.7	1.09×
MP9 \| Broken Record (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 110	$0.17	0.0%	42	46.7	0.90×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 97	$0.15	0.0%	49	53.0	0.93×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 97	$0.15	0.0%	44	53.0	0.83×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 71	$0.11	0.0%	83	72.3	1.15×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$0.11	0.0%	56	72.3	0.77×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 64	$0.10	0.0%	85	80.1	1.06×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 65	$0.10	0.0%	75	79.5	0.94×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 65	$0.10	0.0%	74	79.5	0.93×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 65	$0.10	0.0%	73	79.5	0.92×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 65	$0.10	0.0%	83	79.5	1.04×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635322, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$4.80$9.371.95x32s

MP9 | Broken Record (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff76561199054196333$4.80$0.170.04x32s

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)weapon · blue$4.80$0.770.16x1m

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Focus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff76561199054196333$4.80$0.200.04x1m

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendaryadamnicho$4.80$12.172.54x19m

MP9 | Broken Record (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff< blank >$4.80$0.170.04x19m

StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.80$1.550.32x30m

P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)weapon · blue$4.80$0.890.19x30m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Broken Record (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLeDaddy$4.80$0.280.06x30m

StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$4.80$1.160.24x40m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$4.80	88.98%	170

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 1.0%epic 0.1%Ancient 0.0%#d32ce6 0.1%rare 1.0%classified 4.3%pink 4.1%uncommon 8.0%Legendary 1.2%Mythical 2.7%restricted 6.6%#8847ff 9.9%Restricted 1.0%violet 5.3%milspec 11.0%#4b69ff 19.7%blue 15.4%common 2.9%Rare 5.1%best hit —