Community Charms
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.20
Advertised RTP
88.86%
EV $1.07 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.74%
80.7K openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Lil' Boocharm · Ancient | 1 in 1,149 | $86.20 | 7.0% | 46 | 70.4 | 0.65× |
| Charm | Lil' Eldritchcharm · Ancient | 1 in 405 | $30.55 | 7.1% | 184 | 200.0 | 0.92× |
| Charm | Quick Silvercharm · red | 1 in 361 | $27.27 | 7.1% | 190 | 224.3 | 0.85× |
| Charm | Lil' Serpentcharm · red | 1 in 156 | $11.72 | 7.1% | 449 | 520.7 | 0.86× |
| Charm | Lil' Happycharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 81 | $6.07 | 7.1% | 815 | 1005.7 | 0.81× |
| Charm | Lil' Herocharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 63 | $4.75 | 7.1% | 1,091 | 1285.9 | 0.85× |
| Charm | Piñatitacharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 48 | $3.59 | 7.1% | 1,481 | 1701.3 | 0.87× |
| Charm | Lil' Chirpcharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 37 | $2.76 | 7.1% | 1,833 | 2212.2 | 0.83× |
| Charm | Magmatudecharm · violet | 1 in 26 | $1.99 | 7.1% | 2,923 | 3068.9 | 0.95× |
| Charm | Lil' Goopcharm · #8847ff | 1 in 26 | $1.96 | 7.1% | 2,823 | 3115.9 | 0.91× |
| Charm | Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff | 1 in 24 | $1.79 | 7.1% | 3,115 | 3411.4 | 0.91× |
| Charm | Lil' Prickcharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 23 | $1.72 | 7.1% | 3,477 | 3550.7 | 0.98× |
| Charm | Pocket Popcharm · #8847ff | 1 in 62 | $0.92 | 1.4% | 1,588 | 1296.4 | 1.22× |
| Charm | Lil' Bunscharm · restricted | 1 in 52 | $0.76 | 1.4% | 1,876 | 1569.3 | 1.20× |
| Charm | Hang Loosecharm · #8847ff | 1 in 27 | $0.40 | 1.4% | 3,737 | 2981.5 | 1.25× |
| Charm | Lil' No. 2charm · #4b69ff | 1 in 24 | $0.35 | 1.4% | 4,436 | 3407.4 | 1.30× |
| Charm | Dead Weightcharm · Rare | 1 in 20 | $0.29 | 1.4% | 5,856 | 4111.9 | 1.42× |
| Charm | Lil' Cacklecharm · #4b69ff | 1 in 17 | $0.25 | 1.4% | 4,703 | 4770.2 | 0.99× |
| Charm | Lil' Tuskcharm · #4b69ff | 1 in 10 | $0.15 | 1.4% | 7,927 | 7950.0 | 1.00× |
| Charm | Lil' Vinocharm · #4b69ff | 10.5% | $0.14 | 1.4% | 8,372 | 8517.7 | 0.98× |
| Charm | Lil' Smokeycharm · #4b69ff | 10.5% | $0.14 | 1.4% | 8,063 | 8517.7 | 0.95× |
| Charm | Lil' Ballercharm · #4b69ff | 10.5% | $0.14 | 1.4% | 7,136 | 8517.7 | 0.84× |
| Charm | Lil' Cursecharm · #4b69ff | 11.1% | $0.13 | 1.4% | 8,853 | 8967.1 | 0.99× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635332, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $1.20 | 88.86% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.20 | 88.94% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 0.3%red 0.9%#d32ce6 12.0%violet 3.8%#8847ff 13.3%restricted 1.9%#4b69ff 62.5%Rare 5.1%best hit $101 (83.80x)