SAJU
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $8.89 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.20%
2,020 openings, odds method
Variance
10.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,020 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635356, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $10.00 | 88.88% | 46 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.88% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 12.4%covert 0.2%#ffd700 0.1%Ancient 0.1%#d32ee6 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%covert knife 0.9%milspec 15.1%rare 4.5%Restricted 1.6%Rare 1.9%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%#4b69ff 5.0%restricted 8.7%#d32ce6 3.0%pink 0.4%Mythical 2.9%#8847ff 5.7%uncommon 0.4%mil spec 2.0%Uncommon 11.3%#5e98d9 21.4%best hit $761 (76.14x)